Evaluation of the Skill of CMIP6 models in simulating the interannual variability of Subtropical Indian Ocean SST in present climate

This study explores the features of leading modes of Subtropical Indian Ocean (SIO) sea surface temperature (SST) variability and their representation in CMIP6 models. The first EOF mode of SIO SST, featured by an SST anomaly elongated from the northwestern to the southeastern SIO region is triggered by the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO-induced wind anomalies over the SIO region weaken the climatological southeasterlies, reduce evaporative cooling, and consequently warm the SST in subtropics. The first SIO mode is closely related to the Indian Ocean Basin Mode. The CMIP6 models’ skill in simulating this mode is attributable to their accurate representation of ENSO impacts in this region. At the same time, the skill of simulation of the second mode, the Subtropical Indian Ocean Dipole (SIOD), is poor in most models due to the misrepresentation of the pure tropical Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. As pure IOD events generate SIOD, underestimation of the occurrence of pure IOD events will affect the development of SIOD in models. The CMIP6 model experiments reveal the absence of ENSO forcing on SIOD. Notably, regardless of the bias in co-occurred and pure IOD events, most of the models overestimate IOD strength due to the easterly surface wind bias and the associated thermocline depth bias. The easterly bias in the equatorial Indian Ocean surface wind weakens the Wyrtki jet, creating a shallow (deep) thermocline bias in the eastern (western) TIO. This induces an overestimation of warm (cold) SST in the western (eastern) TIO during positive IODs.