飓风分析和预报系统第一个运行版本的海洋部分:评估混合坐标海洋模式和飓风反馈预报

IF 2 3区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Frontiers in Earth Science Pub Date : 2024-07-29 DOI:10.3389/feart.2024.1399409
Hyun-Sook Kim, Bin Liu, Biju Thomas, Daniel Rosen, Weiguo Wang, Andrew Hazelton, Zhan Zhang, Xueijin Zhang, Avichal Mehra
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引用次数: 0

摘要

2023 年推出的首个运行版耦合飓风分析和预报系统(HAFSv1)由混合坐标海洋模式(HYCOM)和有限体积立方体(FV3)动态大气模式组成。该系统是美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)环境建模中心与国家海洋和大气管理局大西洋海洋学和气象学实验室通过广泛合作,历时 4 年(2019-2022 年)努力改进和更新的产物。为了提供两套数值指导,HAFSv1 的初始运行能力配置为两个系统--HFSA 和 HFSB。在本研究中,我们对 HFSA 和 HFSB 共同演化的上层海洋预报技能进行了深入分析。我们以飓风劳拉(2020 年)为例,展示了风暴与海洋中尺度特征之间的相互作用。通过与滑翔机以及 Argos 和国家数据浮标中心锚系设备的现场观测结果进行比较,我们发现 HYCOM 模拟结果与弱风(大于 2 级)的一致性要好于强风(大于 2 级)。技术指标表明,模式海面温度(SST)和混合层深度(MLD)的相关性相对较低。海表温度、混合层深度、混合层温度(MLT)和海洋热含量(OHC)呈负偏差。在大风情况下,SST 和 MLT 的负偏差更大,而 MLD 更接近观测值,提高了约 8%-19%。OHC 偏差与预测风力强度成正比。相反,混合层盐度(MLS)的不确定性较小,在风力较大时为正值,这可能是由于 MLD 较高的缘故。大风时混合层盐度的负偏差较小,这意味着由于混合层盐度较高和浮力稳定性较高(约为观测值的 1.5-1.7 倍),风力混合的效果较差。热量预算分析表明,飓风劳拉造成的最大热量损失为 O(&lt; 每天 3°C)。造成热量损失的主要原因是平流,其次是夹带,这两种作用根据风暴象限的不同而相互抵消或相互影响。我们还发现,在风暴内期间,不可解释的热量残差相对较大,而且残差明显领先于热量趋势,这意味着需要进一步改进子尺度模拟。总之,HYCOM 模拟没有显示出 HFSA 或 HFSB 的系统性差异。
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Ocean component of the first operational version of Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System: Evaluation of HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model and hurricane feedback forecasts
The first operational version of the coupled Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFSv1) launched in 2023 consists of the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) and finite-volume cubed-sphere (FV3) dynamic atmosphere model. This system is a product of efforts involving improvements and updates over a 4-year period (2019–2022) through extensive collaborations between the Environmental Modeling Center at the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and NOAA Atlantic Oceanography and Meteorology Laboratory. To provide two sets of numerical guidance, the initial operational capability of HAFSv1 was configured to two systems—HFSA and HFSB. In this study, we present in-depth analysis of the forecast skills of the upper ocean that was co-evolved by the HFSA and HFSB. We chose hurricane Laura (2020) as an example to demonstrate the interactions between the storm and oceanic mesoscale features. Comparisons performed with the available in situ observations from gliders as well as Argos and National Data Buoy Center moorings show that the HYCOM simulations have better agreement for weak winds than high winds (greater than Category 2). The skill metrics indicate that the model sea-surface temperature (SST) and mixed layer depth (MLD) have a relatively low correlation. The SST, MLD, mixed layer temperature (MLT), and ocean heat content (OHC) are negatively biased. For high winds, SST and MLT are more negative, while MLD is closer to the observations with improvements of about 8%–19%. The OHC discrepancy is proportional to predicted wind intensity. Contrarily, the mixed layer salinity (MLS) uncertainties are smaller and positive for higher winds, probably owing to the higher MLD. The less-negative bias of MLD for high winds implies that the wind-force mixing is less effective owing to the higher MLD and high buoyancy stability (approx. 1.5–1.7 times) than the observations. The heat budget analysis suggests that the maximum heat loss by hurricane Laura was O(&lt; 3°C per day). The main contributor here is advection, followed by entrainment, which act against or with each other depending on the storm quadrant. We also found relatively large unaccountable heat residuals for the in-storm period, and the residuals notably led the heat tendency, meaning that further improvements of the subscale simulations are warranted. In summary, HYCOM simulations showed no systematic differences forced by either HFSA or HFSB.
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来源期刊
Frontiers in Earth Science
Frontiers in Earth Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences
CiteScore
3.50
自引率
10.30%
发文量
2076
审稿时长
12 weeks
期刊介绍: Frontiers in Earth Science is an open-access journal that aims to bring together and publish on a single platform the best research dedicated to our planet. This platform hosts the rapidly growing and continuously expanding domains in Earth Science, involving the lithosphere (including the geosciences spectrum), the hydrosphere (including marine geosciences and hydrology, complementing the existing Frontiers journal on Marine Science) and the atmosphere (including meteorology and climatology). As such, Frontiers in Earth Science focuses on the countless processes operating within and among the major spheres constituting our planet. In turn, the understanding of these processes provides the theoretical background to better use the available resources and to face the major environmental challenges (including earthquakes, tsunamis, eruptions, floods, landslides, climate changes, extreme meteorological events): this is where interdependent processes meet, requiring a holistic view to better live on and with our planet. The journal welcomes outstanding contributions in any domain of Earth Science. The open-access model developed by Frontiers offers a fast, efficient, timely and dynamic alternative to traditional publication formats. The journal has 20 specialty sections at the first tier, each acting as an independent journal with a full editorial board. The traditional peer-review process is adapted to guarantee fairness and efficiency using a thorough paperless process, with real-time author-reviewer-editor interactions, collaborative reviewer mandates to maximize quality, and reviewer disclosure after article acceptance. While maintaining a rigorous peer-review, this system allows for a process whereby accepted articles are published online on average 90 days after submission. General Commentary articles as well as Book Reviews in Frontiers in Earth Science are only accepted upon invitation.
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