传染病建模中的基于代理的模型与区室模型的整合:一种新颖的混合方法

Inan Bostanci, Tim Conrad
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究探讨了传染病建模中基于代理的模型(ABMs)与区隔模型的空间整合,提出了一种新颖的混合方法并研究了其影响。以个体代理互动和决策为特征的代理分析模型提供了详细的洞察力,但对于庞大的群体来说计算密集。基于微分方程的区室模型提供了种群水平的动态变化,但缺乏粒度细节。我们的混合模型旨在平衡 ABM 的粒度和区隔模型的计算效率,从而更细致地了解疾病在不同场景(包括大规模种群)中的传播情况。我们开发了一个定制的 ABM 和一个分区模型,分别分析了它们的传染病动态,然后将它们整合到一个混合模型中。这种整合涉及离散种群和连续种群的空间耦合,以及评估疾病动态在宏观尺度上的一致性。我们的主要目标是评估模型混合对感染动力学结果的影响,并量化混合方法比 ABM 方法节省的计算成本。我们的研究表明,混合方法可以显著降低计算成本,但对模型之间的差异很敏感,这突出表明模型等价性是混合建模方法的关键要素。代码可在http://github.com/iebos/hybrid_model1。
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Integrating Agent-Based and Compartmental Models for Infectious Disease Modeling: A Novel Hybrid Approach
This study investigates the spatial integration of agent-based models (ABMs) and compartmental models in infectious disease modeling, presenting a novel hybrid approach and studying its implications. ABMs, characterized by individual agent interactions and decision-making, offer detailed insights but are computationally intensive for large populations. Compartmental models, based on differential equations, provide population-level dynamics but lack granular detail. Our hybrid model aims to balance the granularity of ABMs with the computational efficiency of compartmental models, offering a more nuanced understanding of disease spread in diverse scenarios, including large populations. We developed a custom ABM and a compartmental model, analyzing their infectious disease dynamics separately before integrating them into a hybrid model. This integration involved spatial coupling of discrete and continuous populations and evaluating the consistency of disease dynamics at the macro scale. Our key objectives were to assess the effect of model hybridization on resulting infection dynamics, and to quantify computational cost savings of the hybrid approach over the ABM. We show that the hybrid approach can significantly reduce computational costs, but is sensitive to between-model differences, highlighting that model equivalence is a crucial component of hybrid modeling approaches. The code is available at http://github.com/iebos/hybrid_model1.
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