利用离散时间生命周期模型优化主权财富基金的支出策略

Q4 Business, Management and Accounting Journal of Risk and Financial Management Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI:10.3390/jrfm17080327
Knut Kristian Aase
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文分析了捐赠基金的最优支出。目的是找到一个对所有者来说是最优的支出规则,并确保基金 "永续"。为此,我们找到了最优消费与财富比率的封闭式解。我们使用生命周期模型来解决这个问题,在这个模型中,代理人的偏好可以用预期效用或递归效用来表示。我们将结果应用于主权财富基金,并证明最优消费率明显低于基金的预期实际收益率,而这一规则已被普遍采用。采用后者作为支出率,意味着随着时间的推移,基金的价值在概率和预期上都会恶化。对于这两种长期收敛,我们都可以找到封闭形式的临界值。低于这些值的支出将确保基金的可持续发展。
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Optimal Spending Strategies for Sovereign Wealth Funds Using a Discrete-Time Life Cycle Model
The paper analyses optimal spending of an endowment fund. The purpose is to find a spending rule which is optimal for the owners and which secures that the fund will last “forever”. This we do by finding closed form solutions of the optimal consumption to wealth ratio. We solve this problem using the life cycle model, where the agent can have preferences represented by expected utility or recursive utility. We apply our results to a sovereign wealth fund, and demonstrate that the optimal spending rate is significantly lower than the fund’s expected real rate of return, a rule which is in common use. Employing the latter as the spending rate, implies that the fund’s value deteriorates both in probability and in expectation, as time goes. For both kinds of long term convergence we find closed form threshold values. Spending below these values secures a sustainable fund.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
512
审稿时长
11 weeks
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