Ovarian endometrioma recurrence after laparoscopic surgery: First assessment of ACSAP predicting score.

Purpose: We aimed to develop and validate a predictive score to estimate the post-operative recurrence risk after laparoscopic excision of ovarian endometrioma (OMA).

Patients and methods: The prediction score was developed using a training set comprising 431 patients with OMA who underwent laparoscopic surgery at our institution between January 2015 and September 2017. A follow-up period of at least 5 years was required. Clinical data were entered into least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression to build a scoring system that predicted OMA recurrence. A testing set containing 185 patients from October 2017 to October 2018 was used to assess its performance.

Results: Based on LASSO regression, the final score (ACSAP score) included five clinical predictors (0-15 points): Age, cyst size, previous surgery for OMA, revised American Society for Reproductive Medicine stage and post-operative pregnancy. The area under the curve values of the score were 0.741 (0.765) and 0.727 (0.795) for predicting 3-year and 5-year OMA recurrence, respectively, in the training (testing) set. The score stratified patients into three risk groups in both sets, with significant differences in the 5-year recurrence rates (low-risk, 5.3% [0%]; intermediate-risk, 20.2% [16.5%] and high-risk, 48.0% [36.5%]; P < 0.001). Moreover, patients in the intermediate- and high-risk groups exhibited a significant reduction in the 5-year cumulative recurrence following a minimum of 15-month post-operative medical treatment (both P < 0.05).

Conclusions: The ACSAP score may be a concise and useful tool for identifying patients with a higher risk of OMA recurrence after surgery who might receive long-term post-operative medical treatment.