Analyzing the Effects of Healthy Older Adults’ Optimism and Executive Function on Hazardous Road-Crossing Using a Bayesian Generalized Linear Mixed Model

Deteriorating executive function, health, and declining driving experience in older adults have been shown to lead to dangerous road-crossing. Further, positive overconfidence in their capabilities makes efficient compensation difficult. Therefore, understanding the mechanisms of hazardous road crossing by focusing on optimism is important. To examine the mechanisms that influence crossing decisions, this study formulated two opposing hypotheses: more optimistic older adults are blind to functional decline and thus make riskier crossing decisions; less optimistic older adults are more aware of their functional decline and thus avoid risky crossings. Forty-eight older adults aged 65 years or older were asked to come to the laboratory and complete a questionnaire on crossing roads; subsequently, their working memory, attentional shifting, and -inhibition abilities were measured. Data were analyzed using a Bayesian generalized linear mixed model. A model was constructed for each item using four scores on dangerous crossing decisions as the objective variables, allowing examination of the effects of “executive functioning,”“subjective health,”“driving frequency,”“optimism,” and “interaction between optimism and the other variables.” In older adults with low optimism, the poorer the attentional shifting and -inhibition function, the more such hazardous crossings were avoided. In those with high optimism, the lower their subjective health, the more hazardous the crossings. These results supported this study’s hypotheses on optimism. In older adults with low optimism, higher levels of working memory, subjective health, and driving frequency were associated with higher-risk-crossing choices, suggesting that optimism is related to risk avoidance and may influence crossing intentions.