Trajectory of C-Reactive Protein and Incident Heart Failure in Black Adults: The Jackson Heart Study.

Background: Increased hsCRP (high-sensitivity C-reactive protein), a marker of inflammation, is associated with incident cardiovascular events. We aim to determine whether the baseline or trajectory of hsCRP levels over time predicts incident heart failure (HF) hospitalization.

Methods: JHS (Jackson Heart Study) participants' (n=3920 Black adults) hsCRP levels were measured over 3 visits (from 2000 to 2013). We assessed the association of hsCRP at baseline (visit 1) with incident HF hospitalization using Cox proportional hazards models. Furthermore, we assessed the association of the trajectory of hsCRP over repeated measurements (visits 1-3) with incident HF using joint models. Hazard ratios are reflective of an increase in hsCRP by 1 SD on a log2 scale. We also assessed the association of change in hsCRP between visit 1 and visit 3 with Cox proportional hazards models by grouping patients by low (<2 mg/L) and high (≥2 mg/L) hsCRP levels. The 4 groups were low-to-low (referent), low-to-high, high-to-low, and high-to-high.

Results: Mean baseline age of participants was 54±13 years, and 63.8% were women. Over a median follow-up of 12 years, 308 (7.9%) participants were hospitalized with incident HF. Baseline hsCRP was not associated with incident HF (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.08 [95% CI, 0.96-1.22]). However, increasing hsCRP levels over repeated measures were associated with a higher risk of incident HF overall (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.03-1.44]) and HF with preserved ejection fraction (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.02-1.65]) but not HF with reduced ejection fraction (P>0.05). Furthermore, changes in hsCRP from low-to-high and high-to-low levels were associated with incident HF (P<0.05).

Conclusions: While baseline hsCRP was not associated with incident HF, an increasing trajectory of hsCRP over time was associated with increased risk for incident HF (particularly HF with preserved ejection fraction). Temporal change in hsCRP may be an important marker of risk for incident HF with preserved ejection fraction in Black adults.