Cost-effective endoscopic screening for gastric cancer in a cohort with low Helicobacter pylori prevalence.

Background and aim: Periodic endoscopic screening for gastric cancer (GC) is widely performed in East Asia; however, the optimal screening strategy remains unclear. This study aimed to determine the most cost-effective endoscopic screening strategy for the detection and treatment of GC in a cohort with a low Helicobacter pylori prevalence.

Methods: The following data were retrospectively extracted from participants who received screening endoscopy between April 2019 and March 2023: age, H. pylori infection status, presence of intestinal metaplasia, pathological diagnosis of GC, and the interval between the most recent endoscopies. A Markov state transition model was constructed based on the cohort data. The cost-effectiveness of 15 strategies with different starting ages (40/50/60 years) and screening intervals (1/2/3/4/5 years) was compared. The net monetary benefit (NMB) and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of quality-adjusted life-years gained by treatment were used as outcomes.

Results: A simulation model was constructed based on the cohort data of 94 137 participants (mean age 54.5 years, males 57.9%; 74.4% H. pylori-naïve, 94.2% intestinal metaplasia-negative). The results of the base-case analysis showed that the screening strategy of 4-year intervals starting at the age of 40 years had the highest NMB (97 401 578 yen). In both the Monte Carlo simulation and one-way sensitivity analysis with a varying probability of H. pylori infection status transition, the ICER was superior in the screening strategy every 4 years, starting at age 40 years.

Conclusions: Our simulation showed that endoscopic screening at 4-year intervals starting at the age of 40 years was the most cost-effective method.