Implementing pathogen reduction technology while discontinuing blood donor deferral criteria for sexual risk behaviors: A simulation study.

Background: Combining pathogen reduction technology (PRT) with blood screening may alleviate concerns over the risk of transfusion-transmitted infections (TTI) and support changes in blood donor selection to potentially increase blood availability. This study aimed to estimate the residual risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV) transfusion-transmission in Canada after implementing PRT, while eliminating deferrals for sexual risk behaviors.

Study design and methods: A probabilistic approach that combined Bayesian networks with Monte Carlo simulations was used to estimate the risk of transfusing HIV-, HBV-, or HCV-contaminated blood components. Different scenarios were considered to compare the current residual risk after PRT implementation, with and without donor deferral criteria for sexual risk behaviors. Donor profiles and blood component outcomes were simulated based on a literature review including the prevalence and incidence of HIV, HBV, and HCV in the Canadian blood donor population; the use of current blood screening assays; and HIV, HBV, and HCV blood donor viral loads.

Results: In the universal PRT scenario (i.e., with PRT/without deferral criteria), the estimated risks of HIV, HBV, and HCV transmission were significantly lower than those in the currently observed scenario (i.e., without PRT/with deferral criteria).

Conclusions: This risk model suggests that PRT for platelets and plasma (and eventually for RBCs when available) significantly reduces the residual risks of HIV, HBV and HCV transfusion-transmission and could enable the removal of blood donor deferral criteria for sexual risk behaviors.