Lactate as an early prognostic indicator in yellow phosphorus rodenticide-induced acute hepatic failure: a retrospective observational study in a tertiary care hospital.

Introduction: Acute hepatic failure due to yellow phosphorus rodenticide ingestion is often lethal. This study aimed to analyze demographic characteristics and prognostic indicators, focusing on hyperlactataemia as a potential early indicator of mortality in patients poisoned with yellow phosphorus rodenticide.

Materials and methods: This was a retrospective study of 96 patients poisoned with a yellow phosphorus-containing rodenticide (Ratol paste, which contains 3% yellow phosphorus). We examined demographic details, clinical symptoms, and biochemical markers to identify prognostic indicators.

Results: Demographics were similar among survivors and non-survivors. Mortality (36.5%) correlated with a higher ingested dose and treatment delays, with a mean (±SD) of 5.26 ± 2.2 survival days among those who died. Symptoms, including gastrointestinal and neurological features, typically appeared 48 h after ingestion. Non-survivors developed increased aminotransferase activities (74.3%), prolonged prothrombin time (65.7%), and hyperbilirubinaemia (65.7%) during hospitalization, significantly more commonly compared to survivors (P < 0.0001). Hyperlactataemia (lactate concentration >2 mmol/L) was present in 97.1% of non-survivors, with increased serial lactate concentrations observed in 88.6%. The median (interquartile range) admission lactate concentration among non-survivors was 4.6 mmol/L (3.36-7.53 mmol/L), and their peak median (interquartile range) lactate concentration was 6.1 mmol/L (8.74-10.6 mmol/L). In non-survivors, an increased lactate concentration preceded increased aminotransferase activities and prolonged prothrombin time. Logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis confirmed that a 24 h lactate concentration ≥2.67 mmol/L predicted death with 94.3% sensitivity and 91.8% specificity.

Discussion: The majority of patients who ingest yellow phosphorus remain asymptomatic initially and typically present to hospital following the onset of gastrointestinal symptoms, usually a day later. As progression to death occurs within a week of yellow phosphorus ingestion in most cases, determining prognosis as early as possible enables swift referral to a liver transplant centre. Based on our study, a 24 h lactate concentration ≥2.67 mmol/L appears to be an early prognostic indicator of death. In another study, a lactate concentration >5.8 mmol/L was found to be a poor prognostic indicator.

Conclusions: Hyperlactataemia on admission and increased serial lactate concentrations appear to be early poor prognostic signs in patients with yellow phosphorus-induced liver failure.