国际作物贸易网络的结构演变

Yin-Ting Zhang, Wei-Xing Zhou
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摘要

粮食安全是一个与人类密切相关的重要问题。随着粮食需求的不断增长,国际贸易已成为补充国内粮食短缺的主要途径,这不仅缓解了当地的粮食短缺,也使各经济体面临全球性粮食危机。本文以玉米、大米、大豆和小麦的贸易值为基础,构建了四个时空国际农作物贸易网络(iCTN),并描述了{1993}至2018年不同iCTN的结构演变。我们发现,从{1993}到2018年,所有四个iCTN的规模都在扩大,参与者越来越多,贸易值也越来越大。我们的结果表明,随着网络密度和聚类系数的增加,iCTNs 不仅变得更加紧密,而且变得更加相似。我们还发现,与世界谷物贸易网络和其他国际商品贸易网络不同,iCTNs 并不总是同类的。度同类系数取决于度方向和作物类型。对同类性的分析还表明,出超度高的经济体倾向于与进超度低和出超度低的经济体建立联系。此外,我们还比较了四个iCTN的结构,以加深我们对国际粮食贸易体系的理解。虽然不同iCTN的总体演化模式相似,但一些作物表现出特异的贸易模式。这突出表明,在制定粮食政策时需要考虑不同作物网络的特异性特征。我们对 iCTNs 动态的发现对于了解全球粮食系统的脆弱性具有重要作用。
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Structural evolution of international crop trade networks
Food security is a critical issue closely linked to human being. With the increasing demand for food, international trade has become the main access to supplementing domestic food shortages, which not only alleviates local food shocks, but also exposes economies to global food crises. In this paper, we construct four temporal international crop trade networks (iCTNs) based on trade values of maize, rice, soybean and wheat, and describe the structural evolution of different iCTNs from{ {1993}} to 2018. We find that the size of all the four iCTNs expanded from{ {1993}} to 2018 with more participants and larger trade values. Our results show that the iCTNs not only become tighter according to the increasing in network density and clustering coefficient, but also get more similar. We also find that the iCTNs are not always disassortative, unlike the world cereal trade networks and other international commodity trade networks. The degree assortative coefficients depend on degree directions and crop types. The analysis about assortativity also indicates that economies with high out-degrees tend to connect with economies with low in-degrees and low out-degrees. Additionally, we compare the structure of the four iCTNs to enhance our understanding of the international food trade system. Although the overall evolutionary patterns of different iCTNs are similar, some crops exhibit idiosyncratic trade patterns. It highlights the need to consider different crop networks' idiosyncratic features while making food policies. Our findings about the dynamics of the iCTNs play an important role in understanding vulnerabilities in the global food system.
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