缅甸中部实皆断陷带大地震的前震静止:模式信息学技术的应用

IF 4 3区 地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Geoscience Letters Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI:10.1186/s40562-024-00351-9
Premwadee Traitangwong, Sutthikan Khamsiri, Santi Pailoplee
{"title":"缅甸中部实皆断陷带大地震的前震静止:模式信息学技术的应用","authors":"Premwadee Traitangwong, Sutthikan Khamsiri, Santi Pailoplee","doi":"10.1186/s40562-024-00351-9","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In this study, the precursory seismic activity before a major earthquake was investigated by using the Pattern Informatics (PI) algorithm along the Sagaing fault zone (SFZ), Central Myanmar. After improving the earthquake catalog, the completeness of seismicity data with Mw ≥ 3.6 reported during 1980–2020 was used in retrospective testing to find the suitable parameters of the PI algorithm. According to the retrospective test with 6 cases of different forecast period times related to Mw ≥ 5.0 earthquakes, including verification using the relative operating characteristics (ROC) diagram, the characteristic parameters of both time intervals (change time and forecast time window) = 10 years and target forecast earthquake magnitude Mw ≥ 5.0 are suitable parameters for PI investigation along the SFZ. Therefore, these parameters were applied with the most up-to-date seismic dataset to evaluate the prospective areas of upcoming major earthquakes. The results reveal that the Myitkyina and the vicinity of Naypyidaw might be at risk of a major earthquake in the future. Therefore, effective earthquake mitigation plans should be urgently arranged.","PeriodicalId":48596,"journal":{"name":"Geoscience Letters","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":4.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Precursory seismic quiescence of major earthquakes along the Sagaing fault zone, central Myanmar: application of the pattern informatics technique\",\"authors\":\"Premwadee Traitangwong, Sutthikan Khamsiri, Santi Pailoplee\",\"doi\":\"10.1186/s40562-024-00351-9\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"In this study, the precursory seismic activity before a major earthquake was investigated by using the Pattern Informatics (PI) algorithm along the Sagaing fault zone (SFZ), Central Myanmar. After improving the earthquake catalog, the completeness of seismicity data with Mw ≥ 3.6 reported during 1980–2020 was used in retrospective testing to find the suitable parameters of the PI algorithm. According to the retrospective test with 6 cases of different forecast period times related to Mw ≥ 5.0 earthquakes, including verification using the relative operating characteristics (ROC) diagram, the characteristic parameters of both time intervals (change time and forecast time window) = 10 years and target forecast earthquake magnitude Mw ≥ 5.0 are suitable parameters for PI investigation along the SFZ. Therefore, these parameters were applied with the most up-to-date seismic dataset to evaluate the prospective areas of upcoming major earthquakes. The results reveal that the Myitkyina and the vicinity of Naypyidaw might be at risk of a major earthquake in the future. Therefore, effective earthquake mitigation plans should be urgently arranged.\",\"PeriodicalId\":48596,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Geoscience Letters\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-07\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Geoscience Letters\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-024-00351-9\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geoscience Letters","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40562-024-00351-9","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究利用模式信息学(PI)算法对缅甸中部实皆断陷带(SFZ)大地震前的前兆地震活动进行了研究。在完善地震目录后,利用 1980-2020 年间报道的 Mw ≥ 3.6 的地震数据的完整性进行回顾性测试,以找到 PI 算法的合适参数。根据与 Mw ≥ 5.0 地震相关的 6 个不同预报周期时间案例的回顾性测试,包括使用相对运算特征(ROC)图进行验证,时间间隔(变化时间和预报时间窗口)= 10 年和目标预报震级 Mw ≥ 5.0 这两个特征参数是适合沿 SFZ 进行 PI 调查的参数。因此,应用这些参数和最新地震数据集来评估即将发生大地震的潜在区域。结果表明,密支那和内比都附近地区未来可能会发生大地震。因此,应立即安排有效的防震减灾计划。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Precursory seismic quiescence of major earthquakes along the Sagaing fault zone, central Myanmar: application of the pattern informatics technique
In this study, the precursory seismic activity before a major earthquake was investigated by using the Pattern Informatics (PI) algorithm along the Sagaing fault zone (SFZ), Central Myanmar. After improving the earthquake catalog, the completeness of seismicity data with Mw ≥ 3.6 reported during 1980–2020 was used in retrospective testing to find the suitable parameters of the PI algorithm. According to the retrospective test with 6 cases of different forecast period times related to Mw ≥ 5.0 earthquakes, including verification using the relative operating characteristics (ROC) diagram, the characteristic parameters of both time intervals (change time and forecast time window) = 10 years and target forecast earthquake magnitude Mw ≥ 5.0 are suitable parameters for PI investigation along the SFZ. Therefore, these parameters were applied with the most up-to-date seismic dataset to evaluate the prospective areas of upcoming major earthquakes. The results reveal that the Myitkyina and the vicinity of Naypyidaw might be at risk of a major earthquake in the future. Therefore, effective earthquake mitigation plans should be urgently arranged.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Geoscience Letters
Geoscience Letters Earth and Planetary Sciences-General Earth and Planetary Sciences
CiteScore
4.90
自引率
2.50%
发文量
42
审稿时长
25 weeks
期刊介绍: Geoscience Letters is the official journal of the Asia Oceania Geosciences Society, and a fully open access journal published under the SpringerOpen brand. The journal publishes original, innovative and timely research letter articles and concise reviews on studies of the Earth and its environment, the planetary and space sciences. Contributions reflect the eight scientific sections of the AOGS: Atmospheric Sciences, Biogeosciences, Hydrological Sciences, Interdisciplinary Geosciences, Ocean Sciences, Planetary Sciences, Solar and Terrestrial Sciences, and Solid Earth Sciences. Geoscience Letters focuses on cutting-edge fundamental and applied research in the broad field of the geosciences, including the applications of geoscience research to societal problems. This journal is Open Access, providing rapid electronic publication of high-quality, peer-reviewed scientific contributions.
期刊最新文献
The effectiveness of machine learning methods in the nonlinear coupled data assimilation Volcanic activity around Taipei, Taiwan: new data and perspectives on the Tatun Volcano Group A snapshot of the climate in the Middle Pleistocene inferred from a stalagmite from central Japan The crustal deformation mechanism of southern Chuandian block: constrained by S wave velocity and its azimuthal anisotropy Surface air temperature anomalies over Antarctica and the Southern ocean induced by interactions between the interdecadal Pacific oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1