Challenges, Advances and Opportunities in Regional Sea Level Projections: The Role of Ocean-Shelf Dynamics

Future sea level rise and changes in extreme weather will increase the frequency of flooding and intensify the risks for the millions of people living in low-lying coastal areas. Concerns about coastal adaptation have been broadened due to societal awareness of the threat from rising seas, leading to a large set of potential adaptation users with diverse needs for adequate sea level projections in coastal areas beyond the current state of the art regional projections. In this paper, we provide an overview of the potential steps for improvement of regional sea level projections along the global coastline, with specific focus on the contribution from ocean dynamics to seasonal-decadal variability of coastal sea level, and its implications for changes in frequency and magnitude of extreme sea levels. We discuss the key gaps in our knowledge and predictive capability of these dynamics as they relate to sea level variability on seasonal to decadal timescales, and conclude by suggesting ways in which these knowledge gaps could be addressed.