New Incremental Model for Predicting Mortality in Pre-Capillary Pulmonary Hypertension.

Background: In pulmonary hypertension (PH), the identification of easily obtainable prognostic markers associated with right ventricular (RV) dysfunction and survival is needed.

Objective: To evaluate the association of red cell distribution width (RDW) with clinical, echocardiographic parameters and survival in patients with pre-capillary PH, with the development of a mortality prediction model.

Methods: Observational, longitudinal, and prospective study conducted from May 2019 to December 2022. Thirty-four patients with pre-capillary PH underwent two-dimensional echocardiography and complete blood count. A cutoff point of 14.5% was considered to define RDW as altered (≥14.5%) or normal (<14.5%). P values <0.05 were considered significant.

Results: The median RDW was 14.4%. There was a significant difference in peripheral arterial oxygen saturation (SpO2) (p=0.028), RV strain (p=0.047), and pericardial effusion (p=0.002) between the normal and elevated RDW groups. During a median follow-up of 15 months, 20.6% died. Patients with increased RDW had a shorter overall survival (44.7%, log-rank p=0.019), which was a predictor of mortality in univariate Cox regression (HR 8.55, p=0.048). The addition of RV strain <16% and SpO2 ≤93% to the model including RDW alone showed incremental value in predicting mortality (χ2=8.2, p=0.049; χ2=12.4, p=0.041), with increased area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.729 vs. 0.837 vs. 0.909) and decreased probability of survival (44.7% vs. 35.6% vs. 25%, log-rank p=0.019).

Conclusions: RDW provides information on the severity of pre-capillary PH by correlating with echocardiographic parameters of RV dysfunction and mortality, which is best predicted by a model including RDW, RV strain and SpO2.