Artificial intelligence prediction of In-Hospital mortality in patients with dementia: A multi-center study

Background

Prediction of mortality is very important for care planning in hospitalized patients with dementia and artificial intelligence has the potential to serve as a solution; however, this issue remains unclear. Thus, this study was conducted to elucidate this matter.

Methods

We identified 10,573 hospitalized patients aged ≥ 45 years with dementia from three hospitals between 2010 and 2020 for this study. Utilizing 44 feature variables extracted from electronic medical records, an artificial intelligence (AI) model was constructed to predict death during hospitalization. The data was randomly separated into 70 % training set and 30 % testing set. We compared predictive accuracy among six algorithms including logistic regression, random forest, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), multilayer perceptron (MLP), and support vector machine (SVM). Additionally, another set of data collected in 2021 was used as the validation set to assess the performance of six algorithms.

Results

The average age was 79.8 years, with females constituting 54.5 % of the sample. The in-hospital mortality rate was 6.7 %. LightGBM exhibited the highest area under the curve (0.991) for predicting mortality compared to other algorithms (XGBoost: 0.987, random forest: 0.985, logistic regression: 0.918, MLP: 0.898, SVM: 0.897). The accuracy, sensitivity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of LightGBM were 0.943, 0.944, 0.943, 0.542, and 0.996, respectively. Among the features in LightGBM, the three most important variables were the Glasgow Coma Scale, respiratory rate, and blood urea nitrogen. In the validation set, the area under the curve of LightGBM reached 0.753.

Conclusions

The AI prediction model demonstrates strong accuracy in predicting in-hospital mortality among patients with dementia, suggesting its potential implementation to enhance future care quality.