Yesterday's solution: Do national economic and technological development zones promote industrial development in typical developing regions of China?

With the proliferation of special economic zones (SEZs) among emerging economies, their mixed performance has sparked discussions on contextual heterogeneity and underlying driving mechanisms. Characterized by an outward-oriented economy and industry-city interaction, the cross-stage establishment practice of China's national economic and technological development zones (ETDZs) is conducive to expanding existing research focused on cross-country analyses of SEZs. This study constructs difference-in-differences models to analyze the influence of national ETDZs on regional industrial development in the Yellow River basin, a typical developing region in China, from 2003 to 2019, evaluating their performance under a regional balanced development strategy and a within a lagging economic backdrop. The results indicate that (1) national ETDZs do not contribute to industrial growth and even exert a negative effect; (2) while they fail to perform better over time, their spatial spillover effect slightly benefits neighboring cities; (3) an optimal economic environment and proactive policy promotion can respectively mitigate and exacerbate their negative effects; (4) the inability to attract external enterprises and achieve industrial restructuring is the primary cause of the negative effect, highlighting a mismatch and discord between the economic and policy attributes of national ETDZs and evolving contexts. Based on these findings, recommendations are proposed to cultivate SEZs as suitable policy platforms and effective economic spaces.