评估南美洲的生物能源潜力:2050 年预测

IF 4.4 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS Energy for Sustainable Development Pub Date : 2024-08-15 DOI:10.1016/j.esd.2024.101535
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摘要

生物质在全球范围内具有巨大潜力,但它需要可持续管理并转化为符合可持续发展目标 (SDG) 的现代生物能源。本研究考虑了林业、农业、农用工业和城市固体废弃物生物质,评估了南美洲可持续生物质发电的潜力。研究采用了自回归综合移动平均法(ARIMA)时间序列预测模型,数据来源于粮食及农业组织企业统计数据库(FAOSTAT)和世界银行截至 2050 年的数据。2021 年,生物质理论总潜力为 1.21 亿吨,预计到 2050 年将增至 1.37 亿吨。用于能源目的的可用技术潜力从 2021 年的 7.96 亿吨到 2050 年的 9.16 亿吨不等,其中农业生物质约占 66%,农工生物质占 10%,林业生物质占 17%,城市垃圾生物质占 7%。值得注意的是,从 2021 年到 2050 年,并非所有国家的生物能源潜力都在增长。将林业生物质的可回收性从 25% 提高到 75%,可使 2050 年的总技术潜力提高 7%。2021 年至 2050 年,利用现有生物质的初级生物能源潜力为 13,831-15,892 千兆焦耳,考虑到生物质转化为电能,相当于 1278-1444 太瓦时(TWhe)。到 2021 年,生物发电量可占总发电量的 24%。此外,现代生物能源还有助于实现该地区的可持续发展目标和能源行业的去碳化。对南美洲现代生物能源潜力的这一评估与随后的技术经济和环境评估有关,有助于到 2050 年实现全球能源去碳化。
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Assessing the bioenergy potential in South America: Projections for 2050

Biomass has enormous potential globally, but it requires sustainable management and conversion into modern bioenergy that aligns with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This study assesses sustainable biomass potential for energy generation in South America, considering forestry, agriculture, agro-industrial, and municipal solid waste biomass. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series forecasting model with data from the Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database (FAOSTAT) and the World Bank up to 2050 is used. In 2021, the total biomass theoretical potential amounts to 1214 million tonnes (Mt), projected to increase to 1371 Mt by 2050. The available technical potential for energy purposes ranges from 796 Mt in 2021 to 916 Mt by 2050, with approximately 66 % attributed to agricultural biomass, 10 % to agro-industrial biomass, 17 % to forestry biomass, and 7 % to municipal waste biomass. Notably, not all countries experience growth in bioenergy potential from 2021 to 2050. Increasing forestry biomass recoverability from 25 % to 75 % enhances the total technical potential by 7 % for 2050. Primary bioenergy potential, utilizing available biomass, ranges from 13,831–15,892 PJ between 2021 and 2050, equivalent to 1278 to 1444 Terawatt hour (TWhe) when considering biomass conversion to electric energy. The share of bioelectricity could be 24 % of the total electricity generation in 2021. Additionally, modern bioenergy could help achieve sustainable development goals and decarbonize the energy sector in the region. This assessment of modern bioenergy potential in South America is relevant for subsequent techno-economic and environmental evaluations towards global energy decarbonization by 2050.

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来源期刊
Energy for Sustainable Development
Energy for Sustainable Development ENERGY & FUELS-ENERGY & FUELS
CiteScore
8.10
自引率
9.10%
发文量
187
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Published on behalf of the International Energy Initiative, Energy for Sustainable Development is the journal for decision makers, managers, consultants, policy makers, planners and researchers in both government and non-government organizations. It publishes original research and reviews about energy in developing countries, sustainable development, energy resources, technologies, policies and interactions.
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