Prevalence of asymptomatic malaria at the communal level in Burkina Faso: an application of the small area estimation approach.

Background: In malaria-endemic countries, asymptomatic carriers of plasmodium represent an important reservoir for malaria transmission. Estimating the burden at a fine scale and identifying areas at high risk of asymptomatic carriage are important to guide malaria control strategies. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of asymptomatic carriage at the communal level in Burkina Faso, the smallest geographical entity from which a local development policy can be driven.

Methods: The data used in this study came from several open sources: the 2018 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey on Malaria and the 2019 general census of the population data and environmental. The analysis involved a total of 5489 children under 5 from the malaria survey and 293,715 children under 5 from the census. The Elbers Langjouw and Langjouw (ELL) approach is used to estimate the prevalence. This approach consists of including data from several sources (mainly census and survey data) in a statistical model to obtain predictive indicators at a sub-geographical level, which are not measured in the population census. The method achieves this by finding correlations between common census variables and survey data.

Findings: The findings suggest that the spatial distribution of the prevalence of asymptomatic carriage is very heterogeneous across the communes. It varies from a minimum of 5.1% (95% CI 3.6-6.5) in the commune of Bobo-Dioulasso to a maximum of 41.4% (95% CI 33.5-49.4) in the commune of Djigoué. Of the 341 communes, 208 (61%) had prevalences above the national average of 20.3% (95% CI 18.8-21.2).

Contributions: This analysis provided commune-level estimates of the prevalence of asymptomatic carriage of plasmodium in Burkina Faso. The results of this analysis should help to improve planning of malaria control at the communal level in Burkina Faso.