White matter structure and derived network properties are used to predict the progression from mild cognitive impairment of older adults to Alzheimer's disease.

Objective: To identify white matter fiber injury and network changes that may lead to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) progression, then a joint model was constructed based on neuropsychological scales to predict high-risk individuals for Alzheimer's disease (AD) progression among older adults with MCI.

Methods: A total of 173 MCI patients were included from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative(ADNI) database and randomly divided into training and testing cohorts. Forty-five progressed to AD during a 4-year follow-up period. Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) techniques extracted relevant DTI quantitative features for each patient. In addition, brain networks were constructed based on white matter fiber bundles to extract network property features. Ensemble dimensionality reduction was applied to reduce both DTI quantitative features and network features from the training cohort, and machine learning algorithms were added to construct white matter signature. In addition, 52 patients from the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Center (NACC) database were used for external validation of white matter signature. A joint model was subsequently generated by combining with scale scores, and its performance was evaluated using data from the testing cohort.

Results: Based on multivariate logistic regression, clinical dementia rating and Alzheimer's disease assessment scales (CDRS and ADAS, respectively) were selected as independent predictive factors. A joint model was constructed in combination with the white matter signature. The AUC, sensitivity, and specificity in the training cohort were 0.938, 0.937, and 0.91, respectively, and the AUC, sensitivity, and specificity in the test cohort were 0.905, 0.923, and 0.872, respectively. The Delong test showed a statistically significant difference between the joint model and CDRS or ADAS scores (P < 0.05), yet no significant difference between the joint model and the white matter signature (P = 0.341).

Conclusion: The present results demonstrate that a joint model combining neuropsychological scales can be constructed by using machine learning and DTI technology to identify MCI patients who are at high-risk of progressing to AD.