当前和海平面上升条件下圣劳伦斯河沿岸极端水位和河水流量的共同发生情况

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-08-18 DOI:10.1029/2023EF004027
Mohammad Bizhanimanzar, Gabriel Rondeau-Genesse, Louis-Philippe Caron, Denis Lefaivre, Edouard Mailhot
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在地势低洼的沿海地区,高河水流量和高水位的共同作用会导致沿岸洪水泛滥,对经 济和社会产生重大影响。最近对加拿大沿海地区的研究表明,忽视洪水驱动因素之间的相互依存关系,会低估高达 50%的洪水风险。然而,迄今为止,这种相互依存关系尚未在圣劳伦斯河、河口和海湾系统(StL)沿岸得到研究,那里的海平面上升(SLR)以及加剧的河流峰值已经威胁到这些社区。在这项研究中,采用了基于 copula 的双变量频率分析方法,对圣劳伦斯河沿岸 26 个地点的洪水事件发生的可能性进行了量化,包括依赖假设和独立假设。此外,为了量化人为气候变化的影响,将历史时期的联合重现期与 2100 年与 RCP 8.5 相关的预测可持续土地退化速率进行了比较。结果表明:(a) 独立性假设可低估圣莱科特河冲积段发生洪水事件的可能性达 30 倍;(b) 可持续土地退化可使河口和海湾发生洪水事件的可能性增加达 50 倍,使圣莱科特河冲积段发生洪水事件的可能性增加达 5 倍。这项研究强调,在绘制圣劳伦斯沿岸洪水图时,需要明确考虑洪水驱动因素与可持续土地退化和干旱之间的关系。
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Joint Occurrence of Extreme Water Level and River Flows in St. Lawrence River Coasts Under Present and Sea Level Rise Conditions

In low-lying coastal regions, the joint occurrence of high river flow and high water levels can cause coastal flooding with substantial economic and social implications. Recent studies over Canada's coasts have shown that neglecting the interdependency between flood drivers can underestimate the risk of flooding by up to 50%. However, to date, such interdependency has not been investigated for the coasts of the St. Lawrence River, Estuary and Gulf system (StL), where Sea Level Rise (SLR), along with intensified river peaks, are already threatening these communities. In this study, a copula-based bivariate frequency analysis was applied to quantify the likelihood of occurrence of flooding events under dependent and independent assumptions, for 26 sites along the StL. Furthermore, to quantify the impact of anthropogenic climate change, the joint return period in historical period was compared with that of projected SLR associated with RCP 8.5 for the year 2100. Results show that (a) the independence assumption can underestimate the likelihood of occurrence of flooding event in the Fluvial Section of the StL by up to 30 times and (b) the SLR can increase the likelihood of occurrence of flooding event by up to 50 times in the Estuary and the Gulf and by up to 5 times in the Fluvial Section of the StL. This study highlights the need for explicit consideration of the dependence between flood drivers and of SLR in the delineation of flood maps along the coast of the St. Lawrence.

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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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