[Spatio-temporal Heterogeneity of Factors Influencing Transportation Carbon Emissions in Provinces Along the Belt and Road].

The administrative units of 17 provinces （autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government） along the "Belt and Road" were selected as basic spatial units to calculate the provincial traffic carbon emissions along the "Belt and Road" from 2000 to 2021. On the basis of analyzing the spatial and temporal characteristics of traffic carbon emissions by using the spatial autocorrelation method, the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of influencing factors of traffic carbon emissions was explored by combining a fixed-effect regression model and geographic detector. The results show that： ① The provincial traffic carbon emissions along the "Belt and Road" had significant spatial positive correlation, and the overall trend was upward. Additionally, the cluster evolution of high and low values of traffic carbon emissions presented the characteristics of polarization in space. The high value cluster area was mainly distributed in the open leading area, and the low value cluster area was mainly distributed in the core area of the silk road. ② Opening-up level and vehicle ownership were the positive driving factors of carbon emissions from transportation, whereas energy intensity, transportation structure, industry development scale, and government intervention were the negative driving factors. ③ Energy intensity and transportation structure were the main driving factors for the spatial variation of transportation carbon emissions, and most of them would produce nonlinear enhancement when they were spatially superimposed with other factors, that is, there was strong synergy among driving factors. The results showed that the provincial traffic carbon emissions along the "Belt and Road" were affected by the surrounding areas, the influence degree was increasing, and there was synergy between the key driving factors of traffic carbon emissions. Therefore, it is suggested that the provinces along the "Belt and Road" should fully consider the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of traffic carbon emission influencing factors and formulate differentiated traffic carbon emission reduction policies.