{"title":"SIR 模型中的脉冲疫苗接种:全球动态、分岔和季节性","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.cnsns.2024.108272","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We analyze a periodically-forced dynamical system inspired by the SIR model with impulsive vaccination. We fully characterize its dynamics according to the proportion <span><math><mi>p</mi></math></span> of vaccinated individuals and the time <span><math><mi>T</mi></math></span> between doses. If the <em>basic reproduction number</em> is less than 1 (<em>i.e</em> <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>p</mi></mrow></msub><mo><</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></math></span>), then we obtain precise conditions for the existence and global stability of a disease-free <span><math><mi>T</mi></math></span><em>-periodic</em> solution. Otherwise, if <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>p</mi></mrow></msub><mo>></mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></math></span>, then a globally stable <span><math><mi>T</mi></math></span><em>-periodic</em> solution emerges with positive coordinates.</p><p>We draw a bifurcation diagram <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>T</mi><mo>,</mo><mi>p</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span> and we describe the associated bifurcations. We also find analytically and numerically chaotic dynamics by adding seasonality to the disease transmission rate. In a realistic context, low vaccination coverage and intense seasonality may result in unpredictable dynamics. Previous experiments have suggested chaos in periodically-forced biological impulsive models, but no analytic proof has been given.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50658,"journal":{"name":"Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S100757042400457X/pdfft?md5=25b6d7ba2d7aa1a3e9de0a8c3d41474b&pid=1-s2.0-S100757042400457X-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Pulse vaccination in a SIR model: Global dynamics, bifurcations and seasonality\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.cnsns.2024.108272\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>We analyze a periodically-forced dynamical system inspired by the SIR model with impulsive vaccination. We fully characterize its dynamics according to the proportion <span><math><mi>p</mi></math></span> of vaccinated individuals and the time <span><math><mi>T</mi></math></span> between doses. If the <em>basic reproduction number</em> is less than 1 (<em>i.e</em> <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>p</mi></mrow></msub><mo><</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></math></span>), then we obtain precise conditions for the existence and global stability of a disease-free <span><math><mi>T</mi></math></span><em>-periodic</em> solution. Otherwise, if <span><math><mrow><msub><mrow><mi>R</mi></mrow><mrow><mi>p</mi></mrow></msub><mo>></mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></math></span>, then a globally stable <span><math><mi>T</mi></math></span><em>-periodic</em> solution emerges with positive coordinates.</p><p>We draw a bifurcation diagram <span><math><mrow><mo>(</mo><mi>T</mi><mo>,</mo><mi>p</mi><mo>)</mo></mrow></math></span> and we describe the associated bifurcations. We also find analytically and numerically chaotic dynamics by adding seasonality to the disease transmission rate. In a realistic context, low vaccination coverage and intense seasonality may result in unpredictable dynamics. Previous experiments have suggested chaos in periodically-forced biological impulsive models, but no analytic proof has been given.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":50658,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-16\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S100757042400457X/pdfft?md5=25b6d7ba2d7aa1a3e9de0a8c3d41474b&pid=1-s2.0-S100757042400457X-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"100\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S100757042400457X\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"数学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MATHEMATICS, APPLIED\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S100757042400457X","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MATHEMATICS, APPLIED","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
我们分析了一个受 SIR 模型启发的周期性强迫动力系统。我们根据接种个体的比例 p 和两次接种之间的时间 T 来全面描述其动态特性。如果基本繁殖数小于 1(即 Rp<1),那么我们就得到了无疾病 T 周期解存在和全局稳定的精确条件。否则,如果 Rp>1, 则会出现一个具有正坐标的全局稳定的 T 周期解。通过在疾病传播率中加入季节性因素,我们还发现了分析和数值混沌动力学。在现实环境中,低疫苗接种覆盖率和强烈的季节性可能会导致不可预测的动态。以前的实验表明周期性强制生物脉冲模型中存在混沌,但尚未给出分析证明。
Pulse vaccination in a SIR model: Global dynamics, bifurcations and seasonality
We analyze a periodically-forced dynamical system inspired by the SIR model with impulsive vaccination. We fully characterize its dynamics according to the proportion of vaccinated individuals and the time between doses. If the basic reproduction number is less than 1 (i.e ), then we obtain precise conditions for the existence and global stability of a disease-free -periodic solution. Otherwise, if , then a globally stable -periodic solution emerges with positive coordinates.
We draw a bifurcation diagram and we describe the associated bifurcations. We also find analytically and numerically chaotic dynamics by adding seasonality to the disease transmission rate. In a realistic context, low vaccination coverage and intense seasonality may result in unpredictable dynamics. Previous experiments have suggested chaos in periodically-forced biological impulsive models, but no analytic proof has been given.
期刊介绍:
The journal publishes original research findings on experimental observation, mathematical modeling, theoretical analysis and numerical simulation, for more accurate description, better prediction or novel application, of nonlinear phenomena in science and engineering. It offers a venue for researchers to make rapid exchange of ideas and techniques in nonlinear science and complexity.
The submission of manuscripts with cross-disciplinary approaches in nonlinear science and complexity is particularly encouraged.
Topics of interest:
Nonlinear differential or delay equations, Lie group analysis and asymptotic methods, Discontinuous systems, Fractals, Fractional calculus and dynamics, Nonlinear effects in quantum mechanics, Nonlinear stochastic processes, Experimental nonlinear science, Time-series and signal analysis, Computational methods and simulations in nonlinear science and engineering, Control of dynamical systems, Synchronization, Lyapunov analysis, High-dimensional chaos and turbulence, Chaos in Hamiltonian systems, Integrable systems and solitons, Collective behavior in many-body systems, Biological physics and networks, Nonlinear mechanical systems, Complex systems and complexity.
No length limitation for contributions is set, but only concisely written manuscripts are published. Brief papers are published on the basis of Rapid Communications. Discussions of previously published papers are welcome.