{"title":"开发和验证用于预测脑瘫儿童智力残疾的提名图","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.ijchp.2024.100493","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objective</h3><p>Intellectual disability (ID) is a prevalent comorbidity in children with cerebral palsy (CP), presenting significant challenges to individuals, families and society. This study aims to develop a predictive model to assess the risk of ID in children with CP.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>We analyzed data from 885 children diagnosed with CP, among whom 377 had ID. Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, along with univariate and multivariate logistic regression, we identified key predictors for ID. Model performance was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Bootstrapping validation was also employed.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>The predictive nomogram included variables such as preterm birth, CP subtypes, Gross Motor Function Classification System level, MRI classification category, epilepsy status and hearing loss. The model demonstrated strong discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.781 (95% CI: 0.7504-0.8116) and a bootstrapped AUC of 0.7624 (95% CI: 0.7216-0.8032). Calibration plots and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated a good fit (χ<sup>2</sup>= 7.9061, p = 0.4427). DCA confirmed the model's clinical utility. The cases were randomly divided into test group and validation group at a 7:3 ratio, demonstrating strong discrimination, good fit and clinical utility; similar results were found when stratified by sex.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>This predictive model effectively identifies children with CP at a high risk for ID, facilitating early intervention strategies. Stratified risk categories provide precise guidance for clinical management, aiming to optimize outcomes for children with CP by leveraging neuroplasticity during early childhood.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47673,"journal":{"name":"International Journal of Clinical and Health Psychology","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":5.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1697260024000589/pdfft?md5=c105257dd6ed4db16a436ee52a523c2f&pid=1-s2.0-S1697260024000589-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting intellectual disability in children with cerebral palsy\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ijchp.2024.100493\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><h3>Objective</h3><p>Intellectual disability (ID) is a prevalent comorbidity in children with cerebral palsy (CP), presenting significant challenges to individuals, families and society. This study aims to develop a predictive model to assess the risk of ID in children with CP.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>We analyzed data from 885 children diagnosed with CP, among whom 377 had ID. Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, along with univariate and multivariate logistic regression, we identified key predictors for ID. Model performance was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Bootstrapping validation was also employed.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>The predictive nomogram included variables such as preterm birth, CP subtypes, Gross Motor Function Classification System level, MRI classification category, epilepsy status and hearing loss. The model demonstrated strong discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.781 (95% CI: 0.7504-0.8116) and a bootstrapped AUC of 0.7624 (95% CI: 0.7216-0.8032). Calibration plots and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated a good fit (χ<sup>2</sup>= 7.9061, p = 0.4427). DCA confirmed the model's clinical utility. The cases were randomly divided into test group and validation group at a 7:3 ratio, demonstrating strong discrimination, good fit and clinical utility; similar results were found when stratified by sex.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>This predictive model effectively identifies children with CP at a high risk for ID, facilitating early intervention strategies. Stratified risk categories provide precise guidance for clinical management, aiming to optimize outcomes for children with CP by leveraging neuroplasticity during early childhood.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47673,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"International Journal of Clinical and Health Psychology\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":5.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1697260024000589/pdfft?md5=c105257dd6ed4db16a436ee52a523c2f&pid=1-s2.0-S1697260024000589-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"International Journal of Clinical and Health Psychology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"102\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1697260024000589\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"心理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"PSYCHOLOGY, CLINICAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"International Journal of Clinical and Health Psychology","FirstCategoryId":"102","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1697260024000589","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PSYCHOLOGY, CLINICAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting intellectual disability in children with cerebral palsy
Objective
Intellectual disability (ID) is a prevalent comorbidity in children with cerebral palsy (CP), presenting significant challenges to individuals, families and society. This study aims to develop a predictive model to assess the risk of ID in children with CP.
Methods
We analyzed data from 885 children diagnosed with CP, among whom 377 had ID. Using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, along with univariate and multivariate logistic regression, we identified key predictors for ID. Model performance was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Bootstrapping validation was also employed.
Results
The predictive nomogram included variables such as preterm birth, CP subtypes, Gross Motor Function Classification System level, MRI classification category, epilepsy status and hearing loss. The model demonstrated strong discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.781 (95% CI: 0.7504-0.8116) and a bootstrapped AUC of 0.7624 (95% CI: 0.7216-0.8032). Calibration plots and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated a good fit (χ2= 7.9061, p = 0.4427). DCA confirmed the model's clinical utility. The cases were randomly divided into test group and validation group at a 7:3 ratio, demonstrating strong discrimination, good fit and clinical utility; similar results were found when stratified by sex.
Conclusions
This predictive model effectively identifies children with CP at a high risk for ID, facilitating early intervention strategies. Stratified risk categories provide precise guidance for clinical management, aiming to optimize outcomes for children with CP by leveraging neuroplasticity during early childhood.
期刊介绍:
The International Journal of Clinical and Health Psychology is dedicated to publishing manuscripts with a strong emphasis on both basic and applied research, encompassing experimental, clinical, and theoretical contributions that advance the fields of Clinical and Health Psychology. With a focus on four core domains—clinical psychology and psychotherapy, psychopathology, health psychology, and clinical neurosciences—the IJCHP seeks to provide a comprehensive platform for scholarly discourse and innovation. The journal accepts Original Articles (empirical studies) and Review Articles. Manuscripts submitted to IJCHP should be original and not previously published or under consideration elsewhere. All signing authors must unanimously agree on the submitted version of the manuscript. By submitting their work, authors agree to transfer their copyrights to the Journal for the duration of the editorial process.