David C Whiteman, Rachel E Neale, Peter Baade, Catherine M Olsen, Nirmala Pandeya
{"title":"2006-2021 年澳大利亚黑色素瘤发病率的变化(按年龄组和血统分列):一项模型研究。","authors":"David C Whiteman, Rachel E Neale, Peter Baade, Catherine M Olsen, Nirmala Pandeya","doi":"10.5694/mja2.52404","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div>\n \n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Objectives</h3>\n \n <p>To estimate the incidence of melanoma in Australia among people with ancestries associated with low, moderate, or high risk of melanoma, by sex and 5-year age group; to establish whether age-specific incidence rates by ancestry risk group have changed over time.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Study design</h3>\n \n <p>Modelling study; United States (SEER database) melanoma incidence rates for representative ancestral populations and Australian census data (2006, 2011, 2016, 2021) used to estimate Australian melanoma incidence rates by ancestry-based risk.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Setting, participants</h3>\n \n <p>Australia, 2006–2021.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Main outcome measures</h3>\n \n <p>Age-specific invasive melanoma incidence rates, and average annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-specific melanoma rates, by ancestry-based risk group, sex, and 5-year age group.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Results</h3>\n \n <p>The proportion of people in Australia who reported high risk (European) ancestry declined from 85.3% in 2006 to 71.1% in 2021. The estimated age-standardised melanoma incidence rate was higher for people with high risk ancestry (2021: males, 82.2 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 80.5–83.8] cases per 100 000 population; females, 58.5 [95% CI, 57.0–59.9] cases per 100 000 population) than for all Australians (males, 67.8 [95% CI, 66.5–69.2] cases per 100 000 population; females, 45.4 [95% CI, 44.3–46.5] cases per 100 000 population). AAPCs were consistently positive for Australians aged 50 years or older, both overall and for people with high risk ancestry, but were statistically significant only for some age groups beyond 65 years. AAPCs were negative for people aged 34 years or younger, but were generally not statistically significant.</p>\n </section>\n \n <section>\n \n <h3> Conclusions</h3>\n \n <p>Melanoma incidence has declined in some younger age groups in Australia, including among people with high risk ancestry. Social and behavioural changes over the same period that lead to lower levels of ultraviolet radiation exposure probably contributed to these changes.</p>\n </section>\n </div>","PeriodicalId":18214,"journal":{"name":"Medical Journal of Australia","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":6.7000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.5694/mja2.52404","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Changes in the incidence of melanoma in Australia, 2006–2021, by age group and ancestry: a modelling study\",\"authors\":\"David C Whiteman, Rachel E Neale, Peter Baade, Catherine M Olsen, Nirmala Pandeya\",\"doi\":\"10.5694/mja2.52404\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div>\\n \\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Objectives</h3>\\n \\n <p>To estimate the incidence of melanoma in Australia among people with ancestries associated with low, moderate, or high risk of melanoma, by sex and 5-year age group; to establish whether age-specific incidence rates by ancestry risk group have changed over time.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Study design</h3>\\n \\n <p>Modelling study; United States (SEER database) melanoma incidence rates for representative ancestral populations and Australian census data (2006, 2011, 2016, 2021) used to estimate Australian melanoma incidence rates by ancestry-based risk.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Setting, participants</h3>\\n \\n <p>Australia, 2006–2021.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Main outcome measures</h3>\\n \\n <p>Age-specific invasive melanoma incidence rates, and average annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-specific melanoma rates, by ancestry-based risk group, sex, and 5-year age group.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Results</h3>\\n \\n <p>The proportion of people in Australia who reported high risk (European) ancestry declined from 85.3% in 2006 to 71.1% in 2021. The estimated age-standardised melanoma incidence rate was higher for people with high risk ancestry (2021: males, 82.2 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 80.5–83.8] cases per 100 000 population; females, 58.5 [95% CI, 57.0–59.9] cases per 100 000 population) than for all Australians (males, 67.8 [95% CI, 66.5–69.2] cases per 100 000 population; females, 45.4 [95% CI, 44.3–46.5] cases per 100 000 population). AAPCs were consistently positive for Australians aged 50 years or older, both overall and for people with high risk ancestry, but were statistically significant only for some age groups beyond 65 years. AAPCs were negative for people aged 34 years or younger, but were generally not statistically significant.</p>\\n </section>\\n \\n <section>\\n \\n <h3> Conclusions</h3>\\n \\n <p>Melanoma incidence has declined in some younger age groups in Australia, including among people with high risk ancestry. Social and behavioural changes over the same period that lead to lower levels of ultraviolet radiation exposure probably contributed to these changes.</p>\\n </section>\\n </div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":18214,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Medical Journal of Australia\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.7000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.5694/mja2.52404\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Medical Journal of Australia\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.5694/mja2.52404\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Medical Journal of Australia","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.5694/mja2.52404","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
Changes in the incidence of melanoma in Australia, 2006–2021, by age group and ancestry: a modelling study
Objectives
To estimate the incidence of melanoma in Australia among people with ancestries associated with low, moderate, or high risk of melanoma, by sex and 5-year age group; to establish whether age-specific incidence rates by ancestry risk group have changed over time.
Study design
Modelling study; United States (SEER database) melanoma incidence rates for representative ancestral populations and Australian census data (2006, 2011, 2016, 2021) used to estimate Australian melanoma incidence rates by ancestry-based risk.
Setting, participants
Australia, 2006–2021.
Main outcome measures
Age-specific invasive melanoma incidence rates, and average annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-specific melanoma rates, by ancestry-based risk group, sex, and 5-year age group.
Results
The proportion of people in Australia who reported high risk (European) ancestry declined from 85.3% in 2006 to 71.1% in 2021. The estimated age-standardised melanoma incidence rate was higher for people with high risk ancestry (2021: males, 82.2 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 80.5–83.8] cases per 100 000 population; females, 58.5 [95% CI, 57.0–59.9] cases per 100 000 population) than for all Australians (males, 67.8 [95% CI, 66.5–69.2] cases per 100 000 population; females, 45.4 [95% CI, 44.3–46.5] cases per 100 000 population). AAPCs were consistently positive for Australians aged 50 years or older, both overall and for people with high risk ancestry, but were statistically significant only for some age groups beyond 65 years. AAPCs were negative for people aged 34 years or younger, but were generally not statistically significant.
Conclusions
Melanoma incidence has declined in some younger age groups in Australia, including among people with high risk ancestry. Social and behavioural changes over the same period that lead to lower levels of ultraviolet radiation exposure probably contributed to these changes.
期刊介绍:
The Medical Journal of Australia (MJA) stands as Australia's foremost general medical journal, leading the dissemination of high-quality research and commentary to shape health policy and influence medical practices within the country. Under the leadership of Professor Virginia Barbour, the expert editorial team at MJA is dedicated to providing authors with a constructive and collaborative peer-review and publication process. Established in 1914, the MJA has evolved into a modern journal that upholds its founding values, maintaining a commitment to supporting the medical profession by delivering high-quality and pertinent information essential to medical practice.