变化世界中的科学

IF 10 1区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ECOLOGY Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment Pub Date : 2024-09-03 DOI:10.1002/fee.2797
Juli G Pausas
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Thus, the current widespread occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and intense wildfires should come as no surprise—in fact, it can be argued that these are outcomes that humanity has collectively chosen. Despite some uncertainties, including local-scale processes and societal reactions, the climate will continue to change in the short term.</p><p>For different parts of the world and for different branches of the tree of life, scientists have also been predicting the ecological consequences of ignoring those climate predictions. Given that humans have changed the climate, the distribution and structure of biota must also change, and given the rate of change, this implies a loss of biodiversity. Aiming to preserve 20th-century ecosystems within a 21st-century climate is naive. Examples of shifts in ecosystem structure, function, and biodiversity caused by droughts, warming temperatures, and changes in fire regimes are accumulating, and many more shifts are yet to come; indeed, studies of such phenomena are likely to overwhelm ecological research in the coming years. Relentless climate change, together with other anthropogenic impacts such as pollution, land-use change, and non-native invasive species, is shifting the biodiversity baseline to a new normal. Ecological restoration no longer requires looking at the past (reference ecosystems) but rather focusing on sustainability under the predicted future (novel ecosystems and no-analog communities).</p><p>Self-interest and social inertia across the entire human population, along with purposeful misinformation by major social actors like fossil-fuel companies (<i>Science</i> 2023), have led to the so-called “tragedy of the commons” prevailing over scientific evidence. Improving our predictive ability (one of the objectives of science) does not seem to be a priority anymore as it is not a limiting factor. Ecologists continue to monitor the changes (for example, scientists as “insectometers”; <i>P Natl Acad Sci USA</i> 2021). In so doing, we certainly learn about how the biosphere and biodiversity are functioning, but we are witnessing a vanishing world that has—up to now—accommodated humanity quite well. This scenario is reminiscent of the case of Leoncio Badia (the undertaker of Paterna, Valencia, Spain, between 1939 and 1945) who witnessed the brutal reality of the executions of his colleagues by the Franco dictatorship and secretly buried the bodies with care, meticulously recording all details and labeling them so they could be recognized in the future (which indeed has happened). Similarly, scientists today are witnessing the natural world disappear and are quietly and carefully documenting the details for the benefit of future generations, with the feeling that this process is unstoppable given its strength (the Badia effect). This is an odd, and also uncomfortable, sensation for those interested in biodiversity and natural history. Humans may develop technologies to facilitate their continuous adaptation to new climates, but biodiversity is likely to be left behind.</p><p>Collective global actions and sustained efforts across all sectors of society are needed to effectively stabilize the climate as soon as possible. It is important to be aware that climate is a common good, one that requires global conservation efforts for the benefit of the coming generations. While pressing for substantial policy changes, it is essential to recognize that collectively we—the people—are numerous. Small changes in our individual and community behavior may seem trivial, but can accumulate and spread through a contagion-like (non-linear) process, ultimately causing an abrupt shift in the current trends. Consequently, the old slogan “think globally, act locally” is more relevant than ever, and so is “think ahead, act now”.</p>","PeriodicalId":171,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment","volume":"22 7","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":10.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/fee.2797","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Science in a changing world\",\"authors\":\"Juli G Pausas\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/fee.2797\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Science aims not only to describe the universe but also to make predictions, allowing us to react accordingly and improve our quality of life. 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引用次数: 0

摘要

科学的目的不仅在于描述宇宙,还在于做出预测,让我们能够做出相应的反应,提高我们的生活质量。近几十年来,科学家们对全世界的气候模式和过程进行了细致的记录和描述。很久以前(Q J Roy Meteor Soc 1938 年;Nature 1972 年;Science 1975 年),人们就开始预测大气温室气体排放等人为因素导致的气候变化,并通过政府间气候变化专门委员会的连续研究和报告不断完善这些预测。在大量国际会议上提出的这些预测与目前的观测结果相当接近。然而,人类在很大程度上无视这些预测,因此,科学并没有完全达到其目的之一。因此,目前普遍发生的干旱、热浪和强烈野火不足为奇--事实上,可以说这些都是人类共同选择的结果。尽管存在一些不确定因素,包括局部范围的过程和社会反应,但短期内气候仍将继续变化。对于世界不同地区和生命之树的不同分支,科学家们也一直在预测忽视这些气候预测的生态后果。鉴于人类已经改变了气候,生物群的分布和结构也必须随之改变,而鉴于变化的速度,这意味着生物多样性的丧失。想要在 21 世纪的气候条件下保护 20 世纪的生态系统是天真的想法。干旱、气温升高和火灾制度的变化导致生态系统结构、功能和生物多样性发生变化的例子正在不断积累,更多的变化还在后头;事实上,对这些现象的研究很可能会在未来几年压倒生态学研究。无情的气候变化,加上其他人为影响,如污染、土地使用变化和非本地入侵物种,正在将生物多样性基线转变为新常态。生态恢复不再需要着眼于过去(参考生态系统),而是要关注预测未来(新型生态系统和无模拟群落)下的可持续性。全人类的自身利益和社会惰性,加上化石燃料公司等主要社会行为者有目的的误导(《科学 2023》),导致所谓的 "公地悲剧 "压倒了科学证据。提高我们的预测能力(科学的目标之一)似乎不再是当务之急,因为它并不是一个限制因素。生态学家继续监测变化(例如,科学家作为 "昆虫测量仪";P Natl Acad Sci USA 2021)。在此过程中,我们当然可以了解生物圈和生物多样性是如何运作的,但我们目睹的是一个正在消失的世界,而到目前为止,这个世界已经很好地适应了人类。这不禁让人想起莱昂西奥-巴迪亚(Leoncio Badia,1939-1945 年间西班牙巴伦西亚帕泰尔纳的殡葬业者),他亲眼目睹了佛朗哥独裁政权处决同事的残酷现实,并小心翼翼地将尸体秘密掩埋,一丝不苟地记录下所有细节并贴上标签,以便日后辨认(这确实发生过)。同样,今天的科学家目睹了自然界的消失,为了子孙后代的利益,他们悄悄地、小心翼翼地记录下了这些细节,并感觉到这一过程的力量是不可阻挡的(巴迪亚效应)。对于那些对生物多样性和自然历史感兴趣的人来说,这种感觉很奇怪,也很不舒服。人类可能会开发出一些技术来帮助自己不断适应新的气候,但生物多样性很可能会被抛在后面。要想尽快有效地稳定气候,就需要全球各行各业采取集体行动和持续努力。重要的是要意识到气候是一种共同利益,需要全球努力保护,以造福子孙后代。在推动实质性政策变革的同时,我们必须认识到,我们--人民--是一个巨大的集体。我们个人和社区行为的微小变化看似微不足道,但却可以通过类似传染病(非线性)的过程不断积累和扩散,最终导致当前趋势的突然转变。因此,"放眼全球,立足当地 "这句古老的口号比以往任何时候都更具现实意义,"超前思考,立即行动 "也是如此。
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Science in a changing world

Science aims not only to describe the universe but also to make predictions, allowing us to react accordingly and improve our quality of life. Over recent decades, scientists have meticulously recorded and described climate patterns and processes worldwide. Predictions regarding climate change in response to anthropogenic factors, such as atmospheric greenhouse-gas emissions, were initially made long ago (Q J Roy Meteor Soc 1938; Nature 1972; Science 1975) and have been continually refined through successive studies and reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Presented in a plethora of international conferences, these predictions were reasonably close to current observations. However, humanity has largely disregarded these predictions, and as a result, science has not fully served one of its purposes. Thus, the current widespread occurrence of droughts, heatwaves, and intense wildfires should come as no surprise—in fact, it can be argued that these are outcomes that humanity has collectively chosen. Despite some uncertainties, including local-scale processes and societal reactions, the climate will continue to change in the short term.

For different parts of the world and for different branches of the tree of life, scientists have also been predicting the ecological consequences of ignoring those climate predictions. Given that humans have changed the climate, the distribution and structure of biota must also change, and given the rate of change, this implies a loss of biodiversity. Aiming to preserve 20th-century ecosystems within a 21st-century climate is naive. Examples of shifts in ecosystem structure, function, and biodiversity caused by droughts, warming temperatures, and changes in fire regimes are accumulating, and many more shifts are yet to come; indeed, studies of such phenomena are likely to overwhelm ecological research in the coming years. Relentless climate change, together with other anthropogenic impacts such as pollution, land-use change, and non-native invasive species, is shifting the biodiversity baseline to a new normal. Ecological restoration no longer requires looking at the past (reference ecosystems) but rather focusing on sustainability under the predicted future (novel ecosystems and no-analog communities).

Self-interest and social inertia across the entire human population, along with purposeful misinformation by major social actors like fossil-fuel companies (Science 2023), have led to the so-called “tragedy of the commons” prevailing over scientific evidence. Improving our predictive ability (one of the objectives of science) does not seem to be a priority anymore as it is not a limiting factor. Ecologists continue to monitor the changes (for example, scientists as “insectometers”; P Natl Acad Sci USA 2021). In so doing, we certainly learn about how the biosphere and biodiversity are functioning, but we are witnessing a vanishing world that has—up to now—accommodated humanity quite well. This scenario is reminiscent of the case of Leoncio Badia (the undertaker of Paterna, Valencia, Spain, between 1939 and 1945) who witnessed the brutal reality of the executions of his colleagues by the Franco dictatorship and secretly buried the bodies with care, meticulously recording all details and labeling them so they could be recognized in the future (which indeed has happened). Similarly, scientists today are witnessing the natural world disappear and are quietly and carefully documenting the details for the benefit of future generations, with the feeling that this process is unstoppable given its strength (the Badia effect). This is an odd, and also uncomfortable, sensation for those interested in biodiversity and natural history. Humans may develop technologies to facilitate their continuous adaptation to new climates, but biodiversity is likely to be left behind.

Collective global actions and sustained efforts across all sectors of society are needed to effectively stabilize the climate as soon as possible. It is important to be aware that climate is a common good, one that requires global conservation efforts for the benefit of the coming generations. While pressing for substantial policy changes, it is essential to recognize that collectively we—the people—are numerous. Small changes in our individual and community behavior may seem trivial, but can accumulate and spread through a contagion-like (non-linear) process, ultimately causing an abrupt shift in the current trends. Consequently, the old slogan “think globally, act locally” is more relevant than ever, and so is “think ahead, act now”.

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来源期刊
Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment
Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 环境科学-环境科学
CiteScore
18.30
自引率
1.00%
发文量
128
审稿时长
9-18 weeks
期刊介绍: Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment is a publication by the Ecological Society of America that focuses on the significance of ecology and environmental science in various aspects of research and problem-solving. The journal covers topics such as biodiversity conservation, ecosystem preservation, natural resource management, public policy, and other related areas. The publication features a range of content, including peer-reviewed articles, editorials, commentaries, letters, and occasional special issues and topical series. It releases ten issues per year, excluding January and July. ESA members receive both print and electronic copies of the journal, while institutional subscriptions are also available. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment is highly regarded in the field, as indicated by its ranking in the 2021 Journal Citation Reports by Clarivate Analytics. The journal is ranked 4th out of 174 in ecology journals and 11th out of 279 in environmental sciences journals. Its impact factor for 2021 is reported as 13.789, which further demonstrates its influence and importance in the scientific community.
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