Predictors for the incidence of pneumonia among HIV-infected children on antiretroviral therapy in Amhara Regional State Comprehensive Specialized Hospitals, Ethiopia: a multicenter retrospective follow-up study.

Background: Human Immune deficiency Virus (HIV) infected children are at higher risk of developing pneumonia. Particularly, in the early phase of HIV infection, the risk of acquiring pneumonia is high, and it remains a major public health problem even after the test and treatment strategy. There is no clear evidence of the overall incidence of pneumonia among HIV-infected children in Amhara region. Aimed to assess the incidence of pneumonia and its predictors among HIV-infected children receiving Antiretroviral therapy in Amhara Region Comprehensive Specialized Hospitals, 2022.

Methods: A multicenter retrospective follow-up study was conducted from June 10, 2014, to February 28, 2022, among 430 HIV-positive children receiving antiretroviral therapy. A simple random sampling technique was used. The data was taken from the national antiretroviral intake and follow-up forms. The data were collected via the KoBo toolbox and analyzed using Stata version 17. The Kaplan-Meier curve and log-rank test were employed. Bivariable and multivariable Cox regression was carried out to identify predictors of pneumonia and a P-value < 0.05 was considered significant in to multivariable analysis.

Results: A total of 407 children with a record completeness rate of 94.7% were analyzed in the study. The incidence rate of pneumonia was 4.55 (95% CI; 3.5, 5.92) per 100 person-years observation. The mean survival time was 77.67 months and the total times at risk during follow-up period were yielding 1229.33 person-year observations. Having CD4 cell count below threshold [AHR; 2.71 (95% CI: 1.37, 5.35)], WHO stage III and IV [AHR: 2.17 (95% CI: 1.15, 4.08)], ever had fair and poor treatment adherence [AHR: 2.66 (95% CI: 1.45, 4.89)], and not initiated antiretroviral therapy within seven days [AHR: 2.35 (95% CI: 1.15, 4.78)] were the positive predictors for incidence of Pneumonia.

Conclusions: In this study, the incidence of pneumonia was lower than the previous studies. CD4 cells below the threshold, ever had fair and poor adherence to antiretroviral therapy, WHO stage III and IV, and not initiated antiretroviral therapy within seven days were significant predictors. Therefore,, it is crucial to detect baseline assessment and give attention to those identified predictors promptly, and timely initiation of antiretroviral therapy need special attention.