Impact of adiposity indices changes across the lifespan on risk of diabetes in women: trajectory modeling approach.

Aims: The impact of life-course different adiposity indices on diabetes mellitus (DM) is poorly understood. We aimed to do trajectory analysis with repeated measurements of adiposity indices in the development of DM among women across the lifespan.

Methods: This study prospectively investigated the 1,681 population of Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study. At baseline, all individuals were free of diabetes. Trajectory analysis was used to identify homogeneous distinct clusters of adiposity indices trajectories and assign individuals to unique clusters.

Results: Of the 1681 healthy women, 320 progressed to the DM. Three distinct body mass index (BMI) trajectories and 2 distinct trajectories of other adiposity indices (waist circumstance (WC), conicity index (C-index), and body roundness index (BRI)) were chosen as the best fitting of the latent class growth mixture model. In the adjusted model, total participants [HR (CI 95%): 2.83 (2.05, 3.91); p < 0.001], and menopause [1.35 (1.10, 2.11); p = 0.001] and reproductive-age women [2.93 (1.80, 4.78); p = 0.003] of the high BMI trajectory compared to the ones in the low trajectory of BMI were more likely to develop DM. The high BRI in menopause had a significantly higher risk of DM compared to the low trajectory. In menopause (1.80 (1.26, 2.58)) and reproductive-age women (4.32 (2.49, 7.47)) with high trajectory of C-index, the DM risk decreased after adjustment.

Conclusions: The risk of DM was greater for high BMI, WC, C-index, and BRI trajectories than for lower trajectories. Hence, the development of general, abdominal, and visceral obesity trajectories in the prevention of DM should be considered by clinicians.