通过模拟研究应用因果推理和贝叶斯统计来理解疫苗安全信号。

IF 6.9 1区 医学 Q1 IMMUNOLOGY NPJ Vaccines Pub Date : 2024-09-07 DOI:10.1038/s41541-024-00955-4
Evelyn Tay, Michael Dymock, Laura Lopez, Catherine Glover, Yuanfei Anny Huang, K Shuvo Bakar, Thomas Snelling, Julie A Marsh, Yue Wu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

社区对疫苗安全性的看法会影响疫苗的接种率。我们的目标是通过研究可能影响疫苗接种后调查数据可用性的因素,进而影响现有信号检测方法的特异性和灵敏度,来评估当前的疫苗安全性监测工作。我们使用因果有向无环图(DAG)和贝叶斯后验预测分析(PPA)信号检测方法来了解可能影响信号检测的生物和行为因素。DAG 为模拟这些因素变化的情景提供了数据信息。结果发现,不良反应严重程度等生物因素和医疗保健寻求行为等行为因素对参与调查的影响推动了信号检测。在中度至重度不良反应发生率较低的情况下,当不良反应严重程度对参与调查和就医都有很大影响时,就会检测到错误信号。这些发现为未来的疫苗安全监测提供了启示。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Applying causal inference and Bayesian statistics to understanding vaccine safety signals using a simulation study.

Community perception of vaccine safety influences vaccine uptake. Our objective was to assess current vaccine safety monitoring by examining factors that may influence the availability of post-vaccination survey data, and thereby the specificity and sensitivity of existing signal detection methods. We used causal directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and a Bayesian posterior predictive analysis (PPA) signal detection method to understand biological and behavioural factors which may influence signal detection. The DAGs informed the data simulated for scenarios in which these factors were varied. The influence of biological factors such as severity of adverse reactions and behavioural factors such as healthcare-seeking behaviour upon survey participation was found to drive signal detection. Where there was a low prevalence of moderate to severe reactions, false signals were detected when there was a strong influence of reaction severity on both survey participation and seeking medical attention. These findings provide implications for future vaccine safety monitoring.

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来源期刊
NPJ Vaccines
NPJ Vaccines Immunology and Microbiology-Immunology
CiteScore
11.90
自引率
4.30%
发文量
146
审稿时长
11 weeks
期刊介绍: Online-only and open access, npj Vaccines is dedicated to highlighting the most important scientific advances in vaccine research and development.
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