A Predictive Model of Pressure Injury in Children Undergoing Living Donor Liver Transplantation Based on Machine Learning Algorithm

Aims

The aim of our study was to formulate and validate a prediction model using machine learning algorithms to forecast the risk of pressure injuries (PIs) in children undergoing living donor liver transplantation (LDLT).

Design

A retrospective cohort study.

Methods

The research was carried out at China's largest paediatric liver transplantation centre. A total of 438 children who underwent LDLT between June 2021 and December 2022 constituted the study cohort. The dataset was partitioned randomly into 70% for training datasets (306 cases) and 30% for testing datasets (132 cases). Utilising four machine learning algorithms—Decision Tree, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Decision Tree and eXtreme Gradient Boosting—we identified risk factors and constructed predictive models.

Results

Out of 438 children, 42 developed PIs, yielding an incidence rate of 9.6%. Notably, 94% of these cases were categorised as Stage 1, and 54% were localised on the occiput. Upon evaluating the four prediction models, the Decision Tree model emerged as the most effective. The primary contributors to pressure injury in the Decision Tree model were identified as operation time, intraoperative corticosteroid administration, preoperative skin protection measures and preoperative skin conditions. A visualisation elucidating the logical inference process for the 10 variables within the Decision Tree model was presented. Ultimately, based on the Decision Tree model, a predictive system was developed.

Conclusion

Machine learning algorithms facilitate the identification of crucial factors, enabling the creation of an effective Decision Tree model to forecast pressure injury development in children undergoing LDLT.

Impact

With this predictive model at their disposal, nurses can assess the pressure injury risk level in children more intuitively. Subsequently, they can implement tailored preventive strategies to mitigate the occurrence of PIs.

Patient or Public Contribution

Paediatric patients contributed electronic health records datasets.