{"title":"不确定性对商品期货收益和交易行为的影响","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101915","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We utilise measures of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR), as well as commitments of traders (COTs), to investigate the influence of uncertainty on commodity markets. We find that uncertainty has a significant influence on returns, but the direction of the response is due to whether uncertainty emanates from demand shocks (EPU) or supply shocks (GPR). Uncertainty is also positively related to volatility and trading volume. Importantly, we also find that the net positions of both commercial and non-commercial traders are influenced by uncertainty levels. Examination of high uncertainty and recessionary periods indicates that our results are state dependent.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":47962,"journal":{"name":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976924001212/pdfft?md5=126148dd2422f1243c9c62e6a6343285&pid=1-s2.0-S1062976924001212-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The influence of uncertainty on commodity futures returns and trading behaviour\",\"authors\":\"\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.qref.2024.101915\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>We utilise measures of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR), as well as commitments of traders (COTs), to investigate the influence of uncertainty on commodity markets. We find that uncertainty has a significant influence on returns, but the direction of the response is due to whether uncertainty emanates from demand shocks (EPU) or supply shocks (GPR). Uncertainty is also positively related to volatility and trading volume. Importantly, we also find that the net positions of both commercial and non-commercial traders are influenced by uncertainty levels. Examination of high uncertainty and recessionary periods indicates that our results are state dependent.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47962,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-09-07\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976924001212/pdfft?md5=126148dd2422f1243c9c62e6a6343285&pid=1-s2.0-S1062976924001212-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976924001212\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062976924001212","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
The influence of uncertainty on commodity futures returns and trading behaviour
We utilise measures of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and geopolitical risk (GPR), as well as commitments of traders (COTs), to investigate the influence of uncertainty on commodity markets. We find that uncertainty has a significant influence on returns, but the direction of the response is due to whether uncertainty emanates from demand shocks (EPU) or supply shocks (GPR). Uncertainty is also positively related to volatility and trading volume. Importantly, we also find that the net positions of both commercial and non-commercial traders are influenced by uncertainty levels. Examination of high uncertainty and recessionary periods indicates that our results are state dependent.
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