城市地区暴雨强度和空间范围的变化

IF 7.3 1区 地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Earths Future Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI:10.1029/2024EF004505
Herminia Torelló-Sentelles, Francesco Marra, Marika Koukoula, Gabriele Villarini, Nadav Peleg
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摘要

事实证明,城市地区通过改变降雨强度和空间结构,在亚小时和亚公里尺度上对降雨产生影响。然而,目前对变化的确切模式和驱动这些变化的机制还没有清楚的认识。由于城市地区的水文响应对此类降雨特性高度敏感,因此了解这些变化对于提高我们评估城市洪水风险的能力至关重要。我们使用 7 年的高分辨率天气雷达数据(4 或 5 分钟和 1 公里)分析了欧洲和美国 8 个城市地区降雨强度、空间结构和风暴演变模式的变化。在不同城市中使用相同的方法可以对它们进行一致的比较。我们使用风暴跟踪算法跟踪对流降雨事件,并评估每个城市的上风区、中心区和下风区降雨特性的变化。我们还研究了暴雨开始、终止、分裂和合并频率的变化。我们的研究结果表明,城市地区会加剧降雨--主要是在其上空,但有时也会在其外围。总体而言,较大的城市往往显示出最大的降雨增强效应。我们的研究结果表明,城市核心地区的降雨空间结构发生了变化,通常导致降雨在空间上更加集中。我们还观察到,大多数城市的暴雨引发率增加,其中一个城市的暴雨分裂率增加。鉴于人口预测显示未来城市人口将会增加,我们的研究结果表明,在不断发展的城市中,未来的洪水风险将会增加。
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Intensification and Changing Spatial Extent of Heavy Rainfall in Urban Areas

Urban areas have been shown to impact rainfall by altering both its intensity and spatial structure at sub-hourly and sub-kilometer scales. However, there is currently no clear understanding of the precise pattern of change and the mechanisms that drive these changes. Since the hydrological response in urban areas is highly sensitive to such rainfall properties, understanding these changes is critical to improving our ability to assess urban flood risk. We use 7 years of high-resolution weather radar data (4- or 5-min and 1 km) to analyze changes in patterns of rainfall intensity, spatial structure, and storm evolution across eight urban areas within Europe and the United States. The use of the same methodology across the different cities enables a consistent comparison among them. We track convective rainfall events using a storm tracking algorithm and assess changes in rainfall properties in the upwind, center, and downwind regions of each city. We also investigate changes in the frequency of storm initiations, terminations, splitting, and merging. Our results show that urban areas act to intensify rainfall—mostly over them, but sometimes on their peripheries. Overall, larger cities tend to show the largest rainfall enhancements. Our findings highlight that rainfall spatial structure is altered over the urban core; usually resulting in more spatially concentrated rainfall. We also observe increased storm initiations over most cities and increased storm splitting over one. Given that demographic projections show that future urban population will increase, our results point toward an increased future flood risk in growing cities.

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来源期刊
Earths Future
Earths Future ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCESGEOSCIENCES, MULTIDI-GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY
CiteScore
11.00
自引率
7.30%
发文量
260
审稿时长
16 weeks
期刊介绍: Earth’s Future: A transdisciplinary open access journal, Earth’s Future focuses on the state of the Earth and the prediction of the planet’s future. By publishing peer-reviewed articles as well as editorials, essays, reviews, and commentaries, this journal will be the preeminent scholarly resource on the Anthropocene. It will also help assess the risks and opportunities associated with environmental changes and challenges.
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