Assessing CMAQ model discrepancies in a heavily polluted air basin using UAV vertical profiles and sensitivity analyses†

An unmanned aerial vehicle was deployed daily in Riverside, CA from August to November 2020, capturing vertical ozone and particulate matter measurements. Flights took place in the early morning and late afternoon, resulting in 321 vertical profiles from the surface to 500 m above ground level. The measured ozone mixing ratio is statistically compared with ground-based measurements at the Riverside–Rubidoux regulatory air monitoring site in Jurupa Valley, CA and with CMAQ simulated concentrations to assess consistency with the nearest reference monitor and model skill at reproducing the observed vertical structure, respectively. The default model configuration overestimates ground-level ozone by 17.7 ppb in the morning and underestimates it by an average of 2.9 ppb in the afternoon. The sensitivity of the model to factors such as planetary boundary layer (PBL), eddy diffusivity, NO_x emissions, and VOC emissions is investigated by modifying key physics and emissions settings in a series of simulations. We found that our default PBL scheme used in the default CMAQ simulation negatively biases the PBL height in the nighttime and positively biases it in the daytime compared to the observations retrieved from a ceilometer. For the observational region of interest, NO_x emissions are concluded to be largely underestimated, leading to biases in modeled ozone concentration. We conclude with recommendations for achieving model parity with localized measurements.