Investigating the spatiotemporal dynamics and interplay mechanisms between population urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions in China

Population urbanization significantly influences urban carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. As urban areas expand and populations grow, the demand for energy and resources rises, contributing to higher CO₂ emissions. Understanding the objective laws and mechanisms linking these factors is crucial for promoting low-carbon and environmentally sustainable urban practices. This study utilizes the Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) model to explore the impact of population urbanization on CO₂ emissions and innovatively investigates the roles of policies and demographic factors in this process. By examining 30 representative provincial administrative regions in China, the results indicate: (1) From 2000 to 2020, the global Moran's I index for CO₂ emissions generally shows a declining trend, with high-emission areas clustering increasingly in the northern regions; (2) CO₂ emissions exhibit an accelerating upward trend with the progression of population urbanization, with significant regional disparities across eastern, central, and western China; (3) Energy transition policies and the establishment of a carbon emissions trading system are effective in reducing CO₂ emissions; (4) During the process of population urbanization, it is essential to consider urban environmental carrying capacity and employment guidance to ensure a fair energy transition.