Early mathematical models of COVID-19 vaccination in high-income countries: a systematic review

Objectives

Since COVID-19 first emerged in 2019, mathematical models have been developed to predict transmission and provide insight into disease control strategies. A key research need now is for models to inform long-term vaccination policy. We aimed to review the early modelling methods utilised during the pandemic period (2019–2023) in order to identify gaps in the literature and highlight areas for future model development.

Study design

This study was a systematic review.

Methods

We searched PubMed, Embase and Scopus from 1 January 2019 to 6 February 2023 for peer-reviewed, English-language articles describing age-structured, dynamic, mathematical models of COVID-19 transmission and vaccination in high-income countries that include waning immunity or reinfection. We extracted details of the structure, features and approach of each model and combined them in a narrative synthesis.

Results

Of the 1109 articles screened, 47 were included. Most studies used deterministic, compartmental models set in Europe or North America that simulated a time horizon of 3.5 years or less. Common outcomes included cases, hospital utilisation and deaths. Only nine models included long COVID, costs, life years or quality of life-related measures. Two studies explored the potential impact of new variants beyond Omicron.

Conclusions

This review demonstrates a need for long-term models that focus on outcome measures such as quality-adjusted life years, the population-level effects of long COVID and the cost effectiveness of future policies – all of which are essential considerations in the planning of long-term vaccination strategies.