For Amber waves of grain: Commodity booms and structural transformation in 19th century America

This paper examines the effect that the export boom in wheat had on US counties from 1870 to 1900. I find that increased exports in wheat, exogenously driven by declines in British wheat production, led to an unequal effect on wheat production across counties. Specifically, counties that were less well‐suited to wheat production increased their wheat output relative to more productive counties. These low‐yield counties also reduced their urban population share and increased the amount of agricultural activity occurring within their borders. Taken together, my results suggest that the wheat boom in 19th century America led to more wheat production in counties which were less well‐suited for growing it, which slowed these counties' transition from rural to urban.