Research Progress in High-Energy Electron Flux Prediction Methods in Geosynchronous Orbit

Abstract

The increase in energetic electron flux is a complex nonlinear phenomenon with a profound impact on satellite operations in geosynchronous orbit. Previous research, conducted both locally and internationally, has developed models relying on extensive data to predict occurrences associated with the amplification of high-energy electron fluxes. This study conducts a comprehensive examination of significant research discoveries in the field, with a specific focus on selecting prediction factors and methods for designing forecast models. The study introduces key features of solar wind parameters and their correlation with high-energy electron fluxes, emphasizing the selection of forecast factors. Additionally, it highlights the attributes of geomagnetic indices and their relationship with solar wind parameters. Linear and nonlinear models are presented, with linear models categorized as single-input and multi-input, and nonlinear models classified as single-model design and fusion-model design. The study also explores shallow and deep models as distinct methodologies in nonlinear modeling. In conclusion, this study provides an overview of current research findings and approaches while offering insights into the future development patterns in this domain for the forthcoming term.