COVID-19 的随机优化控制模型:佩戴口罩和主动筛查/测试

IF 4.6 Q2 MATERIALS SCIENCE, BIOMATERIALS ACS Applied Bio Materials Pub Date : 2024-08-30 DOI:10.1007/s12190-024-02220-2
Mohcine El Baroudi, Hassan Laarabi, Samira Zouhri, Mostafa Rachik, Abdelhadi Abta
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文的主要目的是研究在 COVID-19 已经开始传播的阶段,佩戴口罩并实施积极筛查和检测以遏制其传播的有效性。这项工作的创新之处在于将重点放在了使用口罩和积极筛查与检测这些基本措施上,而这些措施在文献中经常被忽视,反而被更昂贵的干预措施(如旅行禁令和疫苗接种)所取代。我们研究了这些措施的有效性,并确定了实施这些措施的最佳方法。为了实现这一目标,我们建立了一个随机 SEIR 模型,其中包括四个人群:易感人群、暴露人群、感染人群和康复人群。我们在模型中加入了两个控制函数,分别代表戴口罩和主动筛查与检测干预措施。利用适合随机环境的庞特里亚金最大原则的改编公式,我们旨在找到实施这些控制的最佳方法。我们将前向-后向扫频方法(FBSM)与随机微分方程的特殊 Runge-Kutta 方案相结合,求解随机优化控制问题的最优系统。我们的研究表明,即使在疾病已经开始传播的情况下,同时采用戴口罩和主动筛查与检测的方法也能显著减少暴露和感染人数,为资源有限的国家提供了一种经济有效的策略。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Stochastic optimal control model for COVID-19: mask wearing and active screening/testing

The main objective of this article is to study the effectiveness of wearing masks and implementing active screening and testing to contain the spread of COVID-19 during stages when the disease has already started to spread. This work innovates by focusing on the basic measures of mask use and active screening and testing, which are frequently overlooked in the literature in favor of more expensive interventions like travel bans and vaccinations. We study their effectiveness and determine the optimal way to implement them. To achieve this goal, we develop a stochastic SEIR model that includes four populations: susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered individuals. We integrate two control functions into the model to represent mask-wearing and active screening and testing interventions. Using an adapted formulation of Pontryagin’s maximum principle suitable for the stochastic context, we aim to find the optimal approach to implementing these controls. We combine the Forward-Backward Sweep Method (FBSM) with a special Runge–Kutta scheme for stochastic differential equations to solve the optimality system for our stochastic optimal control problem. Our study demonstrates that even when the disease has begun to spread, using both mask-wearing and active screening and testing can lead to significant reductions in the numbers of exposed and infected individuals, offering a cost-effective strategy for countries with limited resources.

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来源期刊
ACS Applied Bio Materials
ACS Applied Bio Materials Chemistry-Chemistry (all)
CiteScore
9.40
自引率
2.10%
发文量
464
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