School Enrollment Ratios and Their Optimality Towards the Economic Growth of Middle East Countries in the Twenty-First Century: PSTR Analysis

Education is crucial for economic growth as well as the emergence and spread of new products. Thus, a deeper understanding of educational growth is needed, which can be achieved by increasing school enrollment at various educational levels—primary, secondary, and tertiary. Despite extensive debates on the impact of education, the determination of an optimal school enrollment level remains crucial for enhancing economic growth. This study examines school enrollment ratios and their optimality toward economic growth in Middle Eastern countries (MEC) in the twenty-first century using the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) model, utilizing data from 2000 to 2020. The results revealed that primary and secondary school enrollments have a positive impact on economic growth, with growth rates of 2.702% and 3.351% in gross enrollment ratios, respectively. However, tertiary school enrollment does not seem to contribute significantly to the growth rate. Furthermore, a school enrollment level that can be adjudged as capable of improving the economic growth is determined to be 4% for primary and secondary schools, whereas there is no discernible threshold for tertiary school enrollment. Moreover, primary and secondary school enrollments are at an optimal level for economic growth, while tertiary school enrollment is below optimal.