Unprecedented monsoon precipitation over southwest Pakistan in 2022: Regional processes in moistening the climatological heat low

During the 2022 Asian summer monsoon, the climatological driest parts of Sindh and Balochistan provinces in southwestern Pakistan and the northern Arabian Sea (regions of climatological heat low, HLOW) experienced unprecedented precipitation (>500% of the normal) whereas precipitation was reduced from the Indo‐Gangetic Plain to the tropical western Pacific. Our working hypothesis is that the weakened large‐scale monsoon is a direct response to tropical sea‐surface temperature: wave responses that develop in response to changes in diabatic heating anomalies over the regional precipitation centers within the Asian monsoon intensify and transition HLOW into an anomalous moist low. To validate the hypothesis, process‐oriented diagnostics are applied to European Centre of Medium‐range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), and numerical experiments are performed with a linear atmospheric general circulation model. Model solutions confirm that the weakened large‐scale monsoon, essentially a linear response, is determined by persistent warm sea‐surface temperature and enhanced precipitation anomalies over the equatorial and southeastern Indian Ocean–Maritime Continent, and Rossby waves emanating from there, and from continental India, deepen the HLOW. Concomitantly, as a Rossby wave response to negative precipitation anomalies over the northern Bay of Bengal and Indochina during June, and their poleward migration during July–August, positive height anomalies develop and intensify over northern India. The resultant horizontal pressure gradient between HLOW and northern India drives concentrated low‐level wind anomalies that are efficient in advecting the strongest climatological moisture gradient to precondition the lower troposphere during June, and in determining the unprecedented precipitation during July–August when the seasonal cycle prevails over HLOW. Model sensitivity to horizontal moisture advection confirms ERA5 diagnostics. Nearly identical tropical forcing and large‐scale weakened monsoon responses are observed during 2010 and 2020. In these years, diagnostics identify subtle changes in latitudinal position of negative precipitation anomalies over the Bay of Bengal and Indo‐Gangetic Plain that lead to lesser contribution by horizontal moisture advection, resulting in weaker positive precipitation anomalies over southwest Pakistan.