利用 ICEEMDAN-CNN-LSTM 模型预测美元兑人民币汇率

IF 3.4 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Journal of Forecasting Pub Date : 2024-08-19 DOI:10.1002/for.3190
Yun Zhou, Xuxu Zhu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

由于汇率本质上是一个动态非线性系统,因此汇率预测一直是金融领域最具挑战性的课题之一。本文提出了 "分解-重构-积分 "的汇率预测新思路。首先,以 ICEEMDAN 为基础,将原始序列分解为多频 IMF。其次,利用 t 检验确定高频 IMF、低频 IMF 和趋势序列,并将高频 IMF 重构为新的分量序列。第三,使用 CNN-LSTM 模型分别预测这些分量,最后通过整合得到最终预测结果。本文以美元兑人民币汇率为研究对象,实验结果表明:(1)美元兑人民币汇率的波动主要受趋势序列和低频 IMF 的影响,受高频 IMF 的影响较小。(2)ICEEMDAN-CNN-LSTM 模型的评价标准 RMSE、MAE、MAPE 较小,分别为 0.0156、0.0112、0.1679,表明模型的预测性能最优。(3) 本文进行了各种稳健性测试,均表明所提模型具有较高的预测精度和稳定性。综上所述,本文具有一定的理论意义和应用价值。
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Forecasting USD/RMB exchange rate using the ICEEMDAN‐CNN‐LSTM model
Because the exchange rate is essentially a dynamic and nonlinear system, exchange rate forecasting has been one of the most challenging topics in the financial field. This paper proposes a novel idea of “decomposition‐reconstruction‐integration” to predict exchange rate. First, based on ICEEMDAN, the original sequences are decomposed into multifrequency IMFs. Second, we use t‐test to determine the high‐frequency IMFs, low‐frequency IMFs, and trend sequence and reconstruct the high‐frequency IMFs into a new component sequence. Third, we use CNN‐LSTM model to predict these components separately and finally get the final prediction result by integration. This paper takes the USD/RMB exchange rate as research object, and the experimental results show that (1) the fluctuations of USD/RMB exchange rate are mainly affected by the trend sequence and low‐frequency IMFs and are less affected by high‐frequency IMFs. (2) The evaluation criterions RMSE, MAE, and MAPE of the ICEEMDAN‐CNN‐LSTM model are relatively small, with values of 0.0156, 0.0112, and 0.1679, respectively, indicating that the predictive performance of the model is optimal. (3) This paper has conducted various robust tests, all of which indicate that the proposed model has high prediction accuracy and stability. In summary, this paper has certain theoretical significance and application value.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.40
自引率
5.90%
发文量
91
期刊介绍: The Journal of Forecasting is an international journal that publishes refereed papers on forecasting. It is multidisciplinary, welcoming papers dealing with any aspect of forecasting: theoretical, practical, computational and methodological. A broad interpretation of the topic is taken with approaches from various subject areas, such as statistics, economics, psychology, systems engineering and social sciences, all encouraged. Furthermore, the Journal welcomes a wide diversity of applications in such fields as business, government, technology and the environment. Of particular interest are papers dealing with modelling issues and the relationship of forecasting systems to decision-making processes.
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