The Impacts of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Road Transport Air Pollution in London: A State-Space Modelling Approach

The emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to the implementation of legal restrictions on individual activities, significantly impacting traffic and air pollution levels in urban areas. This study employs a state-space intervention method to investigate the effects of three major COVID-19 lockdowns in March 2020, November 2020, and January 2021 on London’s air quality. Data were collected from 20 monitoring stations across London (central, ultra-low emission zone, and greater London), with daily measurements of NOx, PM10, and PM2.5 for four years (January 2019–December 2022). Furthermore, the developed model was adjusted for seasonal effects, ambient temperature, and relative humidity. This study found significant reductions in the NOx levels during the first lockdown: 49% in central London, 33% in the ultra-low emission zone (ULEZ), and 37% in greater London. Although reductions in NOx were also observed during the second and third lockdowns, they were less than the first lockdown. In contrast, PM10 and PM2.5 increased by 12% and 1%, respectively, during the first lockdown, possibly due to higher residential energy consumption. However, during the second lockdown, PM10 and PM2.5 levels decreased by 11% and 13%, respectively, and remained unchanged during the third lockdown. These findings highlight the complex dynamics of urban air quality and underscore the need for targeted interventions to address specific pollution sources, particularly those related to road transport. The study provides valuable insights into the effectiveness of lockdown measures and informs future air quality management strategies.