共同社会经济路径下黄河上游流域径流变化预测

IF 1.8 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Frontiers of Earth Science Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI:10.1007/s11707-022-1032-z
Ziyan Chen, Buda Su, Mengxia Zhao, Yim ling Siu, Jinlong Huang, Mingjin Zhan, Tong Jiang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候变化对黄河流域1 的水资源和保护区产生了重大影响。本研究的重点是黄河上游流域(UYR),即黄河兰州站以上地区,黄河上游流域的径流变化将对中国的水资源产生重大影响。现有研究大多依赖单一水文模型(HM)而非多种模型和标准来评估径流变化。就乌江而言,以前的耦合模式国际比较项目(CMIP)的输出结果被用作 HMs 的驱动因素。在这项研究中,利用 CMIP6 的 "共享社会经济路径"(SSPs),采用多种标准评估了三个 HMs 的加权结果,以调查大洋洲多年平均降水量的预计变化。研究的主要发现如下。1) 根据 7 种 SSPs,预计到 21 世纪末,南亚区域合作区的年排水量将增加 15.2%-64.4%。从长期来看(2081-2100 年),夏季和秋季排水量将分别增加 18.9%-56.6% 和 11.8%-70% 。2) 在未来三个时期(2021-2040 年、2041-2060 年、2081-2100 年),在所有 7 个 SSPs 下,乌拉圭的洪水风险可能会增加。此外,在未来三个时期的大多数情景下,干旱风险都会降低。本研究采用了经过核实的高海拔地区和最新的可持续发展模式,为乌拉圭提供流域尺度的气候影响预测,以支持水资源管理。
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Projected changes of runoff in the Upper Yellow River Basin under shared socioeconomic pathways

Climate change has significantly impacted the1 water resources and conservation area of the Yellow River basin. The Upper Yellow River basin (UYR), referring to the area above Lanzhou station on the Yellow River is the focus of this study, the runoff changes in the UYR would greatly impact the water resources in China. Most existing studies rely on a single hydrological model (HM) to evaluate runoff changes instead of multiple models and criteria. In terms of the UYR, outputs of the previous Coupled Model International Comparison Project (CMIP) are used as drivers of HMs. In this study, the weighted results of three HMs were evaluated using multiple criteria to investigate the projected changes in discharge in the UYR using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) from CMIP6. The research’s key findings include the following. 1) Annual discharge in the UYR is expected to increase by 15.2%–64.4% at the end of the 21st century under the 7 SSPs. In the long-term (2081–2100), the summer and autumn discharge will increase by 18.9%–56.6% and 11.8%–70%, respectively. 2) The risk of flooding in the UYR is likely to increase in the three future periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2081–2100) under all 7 SSPs. Furthermore, the drought risk will decrease under most scenarios in all three future periods. The verified HMs and the latest SSPs are applied in this study to provide basin-scale climate impact projections for the UYR to support water resource management.

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来源期刊
Frontiers of Earth Science
Frontiers of Earth Science GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
CiteScore
3.50
自引率
5.00%
发文量
627
期刊介绍: Frontiers of Earth Science publishes original, peer-reviewed, theoretical and experimental frontier research papers as well as significant review articles of more general interest to earth scientists. The journal features articles dealing with observations, patterns, processes, and modeling of both innerspheres (including deep crust, mantle, and core) and outerspheres (including atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere) of the earth. Its aim is to promote communication and share knowledge among the international earth science communities
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