共同或特定来源、特征或分数;这都是信息问题

Aafko Boonstra, Ronald Meester, Klaas Slooten
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们证明,只要适当更新假设的概率,纳入任何新信息都能改善决策,即最优决策的预期成本会降低(或者,在没有或没有纳入足够新信息的边界情况下,预期成本保持不变)。这一结果的不同版本以前也曾提出过。然而,以前的证明依赖于具有适当评分规则的辅助构造。而我们只考虑似然比的基本性质,就提供了一个直接的、完全通用的证明。我们指出了与适当评分规则的关系。我们运用我们的结果,为关于使用基于分数/基于特征和基于共同/特定来源的似然比的争论做出了贡献。在文献中,这些通常被表述为不同的 "LR 系统"。我们认为,决定计算哪种 LR 只是可用信息的问题。并不存在不同的 "LR 系统",只有可用信息的差异。特别是,尽管有相反的说法,分数在法医实践中还是可以很好地使用,我们以 DNA 亲缘关系中的大量实例来说明这一点。
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Common or specific source, features or scores; it is all a matter of information
We show that the incorporation of any new piece of information allows for improved decision making in the sense that the expected costs of an optimal decision decrease (or, in boundary cases where no or not enough new information is incorporated, stays the same) whenever this is done by the appropriate update of the probabilities of the hypotheses. Versions of this result have been stated before. However, previous proofs rely on auxiliary constructions with proper scoring rules. We, instead, offer a direct and completely general proof by considering elementary properties of likelihood ratios only. We do point out the relation to proper scoring rules. We apply our results to make a contribution to the debates about the use of score based/feature based and common/specific source likelihood ratios. In the literature these are often presented as different ``LR-systems''. We argue that deciding which LR to compute is simply a matter of the available information. There is no such thing as different ``LR-systems'', there are only differences in the available information. In particular, despite claims to the contrary, scores can very well be used in forensic practice and we illustrate this with an extensive example in DNA kinship context.
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