具有未观察到的逡巡现象的队列的服务价值参数估计

Daniel Podorojnyi, Liron Ravner
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摘要

在 Naor 的模型[16]中,顾客在观察队列长度后决定是否加入队列。我们假定顾客从已完成的服务中获得的服务价值(奖励)$R$ 是异质的,而单位时间内留在系统中的成本是同质的。假定客户的价值是由普通参数分布产生的独立随机变量。管理者观察队列长度过程,但不观察逡巡不前的顾客。根据队列长度数据,构建了 $R$ 基本参数的 MLE。我们提供了可验证的条件,即估计值具有一致性和渐近正态性。我们构建了一个动态定价方案,该方案从某个任意价格开始,利用估计参数迭代更新价格。我们通过一系列模拟实验研究了估计器和定价算法的性能。
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Estimation of service value parameters for a queue with unobserved balking
In Naor's model [16], customers decide whether or not to join a queue after observing its length. We suppose that customers are heterogeneous in their service value (reward) $R$ from completed service and homogeneous in the cost of staying in the system per unit of time. It is assumed that the values of customers are independent random variables generated from a common parametric distribution. The manager observes the queue length process, but not the balking customers. Based on the queue length data, an MLE is constructed for the underlying parameters of $R$. We provide verifiable conditions for which the estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal. A dynamic pricing scheme is constructed that starts from some arbitrary price and iteratively updates the price using the estimated parameters. The performance of the estimator and the pricing algorithm are studied through a series of simulation experiments.
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