对给定截断点的左截断对数-逻辑分布进行最大似然估计

IF 1.2 3区 数学 Q2 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Statistical Papers Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI:10.1007/s00362-024-01603-8
Markus Kreer, Ayşe Kızılersü, Jake Guscott, Lukas Christopher Schmitz, Anthony W. Thomas
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摘要

对于对数逻辑分布随机变量 X 的独立同分布副本的样本 \(X_1,X_2,\ldotsX_N\),如果引入一个左截断点 \(x_L>0\),就可以详细分析最大似然估计。由于缩放特性,研究 \(x_L=1\)的情况就足够了。在这里,归一化样本(即样本除以 \(x_L\))的相应最大似然方程并不总是有解。一个简单的标准可以保证解的存在:让 \(\mathbb {E}(\cdot )\) 表示归一化样本引起的期望值,用 \(\beta _0=\mathbb {E}(\ln {X})^{-1}\)表示采样随机变量 X 的对数(大于 \(x_L=1\))的反期望值。如果这个值\(\beta _0\)大于某个正数\(\beta _C\),那么就存在最大似然方程的解。这里的数\(\beta _C\)是矩方程的唯一解,\(\mathbb {E}(X^{-\beta _C})=\frac{1}{2}\)。在存在的情况下,可以构建一个轮廓似然函数,并将优化问题简化为一个维度,从而产生一种稳健的数值算法。当最大似然方程对某些数据样本不允许求解时,可以证明帕累托分布是退化的左截断对数-逻辑分布的 \(L^1\)-limit ,其中 \(L^1(\mathbb {R}^+)\) 是绝对值可被勒贝格积分的函数的通常巴拿赫空间。大样本分析显示了一致性和渐近正态性,补充了我们的分析。最后,我们介绍了现实世界数据的两个应用。
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Maximum likelihood estimation for left-truncated log-logistic distributions with a given truncation point

For a sample \(X_1, X_2,\ldots X_N\) of independent identically distributed copies of a log-logistically distributed random variable X the maximum likelihood estimation is analysed in detail if a left-truncation point \(x_L>0\) is introduced. Due to scaling properties it is sufficient to investigate the case \(x_L=1\). Here the corresponding maximum likelihood equations for a normalised sample (i.e. a sample divided by \(x_L\)) do not always possess a solution. A simple criterion guarantees the existence of a solution: Let \(\mathbb {E}(\cdot )\) denote the expectation induced by the normalised sample and denote by \(\beta _0=\mathbb {E}(\ln {X})^{-1}\), the inverse value of expectation of the logarithm of the sampled random variable X (which is greater than \(x_L=1\)). If this value \(\beta _0\) is bigger than a certain positive number \(\beta _C\) then a solution of the maximum likelihood equation exists. Here the number \(\beta _C\) is the unique solution of a moment equation,\(\mathbb {E}(X^{-\beta _C})=\frac{1}{2}\). In the case of existence a profile likelihood function can be constructed and the optimisation problem is reduced to one dimension leading to a robust numerical algorithm. When the maximum likelihood equations do not admit a solution for certain data samples, it is shown that the Pareto distribution is the \(L^1\)-limit of the degenerated left-truncated log-logistic distribution, where \(L^1(\mathbb {R}^+)\) is the usual Banach space of functions whose absolute value is Lebesgue-integrable. A large sample analysis showing consistency and asymptotic normality complements our analysis. Finally, two applications to real world data are presented.

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来源期刊
Statistical Papers
Statistical Papers 数学-统计学与概率论
CiteScore
2.80
自引率
7.70%
发文量
95
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: The journal Statistical Papers addresses itself to all persons and organizations that have to deal with statistical methods in their own field of work. It attempts to provide a forum for the presentation and critical assessment of statistical methods, in particular for the discussion of their methodological foundations as well as their potential applications. Methods that have broad applications will be preferred. However, special attention is given to those statistical methods which are relevant to the economic and social sciences. In addition to original research papers, readers will find survey articles, short notes, reports on statistical software, problem section, and book reviews.
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