Neighborhood Racial and Ethnic Predominance, Child Opportunity, and Violence-Related Mortality among Children and Adolescents in Chicago

Our objective was to determine whether Child Opportunity Index (COI), a measure of neighborhood socioeconomic and built environment specific to children, mediated the relationship of census tract Black or Hispanic predominance with increased rates of census tract violence-related mortality. The hypothesis was that COI would partially mediate the relationship. This cross-sectional study combined data from the American Community Survey 5-year estimates, the COI 2.0, and the Illinois Violent Death Reporting System 2015–2019 for the City of Chicago. Individuals ages 0–19 years were included. The primary exposure was census tract Black, Hispanic, White, and other race predominance (> 50% of population). The primary outcome was census tract violence-related mortality. A mediation analysis was performed to evaluate the role of COI as a potential mediator. Multivariable logistic regression modeling census tract violence-related mortality demonstrated a direct effect of census tract Black predominance (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 2.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.30–5.14) on violence-related mortality compared to White predominance. There was no association of census tract Hispanic predominance with violence-related mortality compared to White predominance (aOR 1.57, 95% CI 0.88–2.84). Approximately 64.9% (95% CI 60.2–80.0%) of the effect of census tract Black predominance and 67.9% (95% CI 61.2–200%) of the effect of census tract Hispanic predominance on violence-related mortality was indirect via COI. COI partially mediated the effect of census tract Black and Hispanic predominance on census tract violence-related mortality. Interventions that target neighborhood social and economic factors should be considered to reduce violence-related mortality among children and adolescents.