{"title":"基于天气的适应性病害管理策略的概率经济分析--新西兰苗圃桃金娘锈病案例","authors":"Les Dowling, Juan Monge, Robert Beresford","doi":"10.1007/s10530-024-03398-z","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>In agricultural systems, responsive management can mitigate the effects of risk and uncertainty by facilitating adaptation to changing conditions. A tool for evaluating management systems while accounting for risk and uncertainty is Probabilistic Cost Benefit Analysis (PCBA). This study used PCBA to contrast a new responsive disease management strategy against an existing prescriptive strategy. Fungicide application to prevent myrtle rust (MR) in NZ plant nurseries was used as a case study to test if the expected benefits of the responsive strategy justified the investment in potentially more frequent and costlier disease control. A MR risk generator was used to simulate disease progression. Empirical MR risk distribution functions were sampled to stochastically compare net benefits across scenarios, highlighting the potential impact of infrequent but significant disease incursions. Our results showed that the risk-based strategy was more effective at controlling the disease, especially for susceptible myrtle species in high-risk locations. The findings highlighted the essential role of fungicides in propagating highly MR-susceptible species, and that disease management, when responsive to risk, enhanced the efficiency of fungicide use. The Responsive strategy is discussed as an effective management option for nurseries under uncertainty of significant MR incursions. However, in less risky scenarios, the benefits of the responsive strategy were moderate, and operational considerations may favour the standard calendar-based approach. In such cases, the method provided here can help estimate the appropriate fungicide application interval and the associated MR risk.</p>","PeriodicalId":9202,"journal":{"name":"Biological Invasions","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Probabilistic economic analysis of a weather-based adaptive disease management strategy-the case of myrtle rust in New Zealand nurseries\",\"authors\":\"Les Dowling, Juan Monge, Robert Beresford\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s10530-024-03398-z\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>In agricultural systems, responsive management can mitigate the effects of risk and uncertainty by facilitating adaptation to changing conditions. A tool for evaluating management systems while accounting for risk and uncertainty is Probabilistic Cost Benefit Analysis (PCBA). This study used PCBA to contrast a new responsive disease management strategy against an existing prescriptive strategy. Fungicide application to prevent myrtle rust (MR) in NZ plant nurseries was used as a case study to test if the expected benefits of the responsive strategy justified the investment in potentially more frequent and costlier disease control. A MR risk generator was used to simulate disease progression. Empirical MR risk distribution functions were sampled to stochastically compare net benefits across scenarios, highlighting the potential impact of infrequent but significant disease incursions. Our results showed that the risk-based strategy was more effective at controlling the disease, especially for susceptible myrtle species in high-risk locations. The findings highlighted the essential role of fungicides in propagating highly MR-susceptible species, and that disease management, when responsive to risk, enhanced the efficiency of fungicide use. The Responsive strategy is discussed as an effective management option for nurseries under uncertainty of significant MR incursions. However, in less risky scenarios, the benefits of the responsive strategy were moderate, and operational considerations may favour the standard calendar-based approach. In such cases, the method provided here can help estimate the appropriate fungicide application interval and the associated MR risk.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":9202,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Biological Invasions\",\"volume\":\"8 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-08-16\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Biological Invasions\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-024-03398-z\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Biological Invasions","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-024-03398-z","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION","Score":null,"Total":0}
Probabilistic economic analysis of a weather-based adaptive disease management strategy-the case of myrtle rust in New Zealand nurseries
In agricultural systems, responsive management can mitigate the effects of risk and uncertainty by facilitating adaptation to changing conditions. A tool for evaluating management systems while accounting for risk and uncertainty is Probabilistic Cost Benefit Analysis (PCBA). This study used PCBA to contrast a new responsive disease management strategy against an existing prescriptive strategy. Fungicide application to prevent myrtle rust (MR) in NZ plant nurseries was used as a case study to test if the expected benefits of the responsive strategy justified the investment in potentially more frequent and costlier disease control. A MR risk generator was used to simulate disease progression. Empirical MR risk distribution functions were sampled to stochastically compare net benefits across scenarios, highlighting the potential impact of infrequent but significant disease incursions. Our results showed that the risk-based strategy was more effective at controlling the disease, especially for susceptible myrtle species in high-risk locations. The findings highlighted the essential role of fungicides in propagating highly MR-susceptible species, and that disease management, when responsive to risk, enhanced the efficiency of fungicide use. The Responsive strategy is discussed as an effective management option for nurseries under uncertainty of significant MR incursions. However, in less risky scenarios, the benefits of the responsive strategy were moderate, and operational considerations may favour the standard calendar-based approach. In such cases, the method provided here can help estimate the appropriate fungicide application interval and the associated MR risk.
期刊介绍:
Biological Invasions publishes research and synthesis papers on patterns and processes of biological invasions in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine (including brackish) ecosystems. Also of interest are scholarly papers on management and policy issues as they relate to conservation programs and the global amelioration or control of invasions. The journal will consider proposals for special issues resulting from conferences or workshops on invasions.There are no page charges to publish in this journal.