基于天气的适应性病害管理策略的概率经济分析--新西兰苗圃桃金娘锈病案例

IF 2.8 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION Biological Invasions Pub Date : 2024-08-16 DOI:10.1007/s10530-024-03398-z
Les Dowling, Juan Monge, Robert Beresford
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摘要

在农业系统中,反应灵敏的管理可以通过促进适应不断变化的条件来减轻风险和不确定性的影响。概率成本效益分析(PCBA)是一种在考虑风险和不确定性的同时对管理系统进行评估的工具。本研究利用 PCBA 将新的响应性病害管理策略与现有的指令性策略进行对比。以新西兰植物苗圃使用杀真菌剂预防桃金娘锈病(MR)为案例,测试反应性策略的预期效益是否证明投资于可能更频繁、成本更高的病害控制是合理的。使用 MR 风险生成器模拟病害发展。对经验性磁共振风险分布函数进行采样,随机比较不同方案的净效益,突出不常见但重大疾病入侵的潜在影响。我们的研究结果表明,基于风险的策略能更有效地控制病害,尤其是对高风险地区的易感桃金娘树种。研究结果凸显了杀菌剂在繁殖对 MR 敏感性高的物种时所发挥的重要作用,而且如果能对风险做出反应,病害管理就能提高杀菌剂的使用效率。在不确定是否会出现大量 MR 入侵的情况下,"响应策略 "被视为苗圃的一种有效管理选择。不过,在风险较低的情况下,反应策略的效益一般,出于操作考虑,可能更倾向于采用基于日历的标准方法。在这种情况下,本文提供的方法有助于估算适当的杀菌剂施用间隔期和相关的 MR 风险。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Probabilistic economic analysis of a weather-based adaptive disease management strategy-the case of myrtle rust in New Zealand nurseries

In agricultural systems, responsive management can mitigate the effects of risk and uncertainty by facilitating adaptation to changing conditions. A tool for evaluating management systems while accounting for risk and uncertainty is Probabilistic Cost Benefit Analysis (PCBA). This study used PCBA to contrast a new responsive disease management strategy against an existing prescriptive strategy. Fungicide application to prevent myrtle rust (MR) in NZ plant nurseries was used as a case study to test if the expected benefits of the responsive strategy justified the investment in potentially more frequent and costlier disease control. A MR risk generator was used to simulate disease progression. Empirical MR risk distribution functions were sampled to stochastically compare net benefits across scenarios, highlighting the potential impact of infrequent but significant disease incursions. Our results showed that the risk-based strategy was more effective at controlling the disease, especially for susceptible myrtle species in high-risk locations. The findings highlighted the essential role of fungicides in propagating highly MR-susceptible species, and that disease management, when responsive to risk, enhanced the efficiency of fungicide use. The Responsive strategy is discussed as an effective management option for nurseries under uncertainty of significant MR incursions. However, in less risky scenarios, the benefits of the responsive strategy were moderate, and operational considerations may favour the standard calendar-based approach. In such cases, the method provided here can help estimate the appropriate fungicide application interval and the associated MR risk.

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来源期刊
Biological Invasions
Biological Invasions 环境科学-生态学
CiteScore
6.00
自引率
6.90%
发文量
248
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Biological Invasions publishes research and synthesis papers on patterns and processes of biological invasions in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine (including brackish) ecosystems. Also of interest are scholarly papers on management and policy issues as they relate to conservation programs and the global amelioration or control of invasions. The journal will consider proposals for special issues resulting from conferences or workshops on invasions.There are no page charges to publish in this journal.
期刊最新文献
Plant invasion down under: exploring the below-ground impact of invasive plant species on soil properties and invertebrate communities in the Central Plateau of New Zealand Cats in a bag: state-based spending for invasive species management across the United States is haphazard, uncoordinated, and incomplete Range expansion of the invasive hybrid cattail Typha × glauca exceeds that of its maternal plant T. angustifolia in the western Prairie Pothole Region of North America Recruitment curves of three non-native conifers in European temperate forests: implications for invasions Combining storm flood water level and topography to prioritize inter-basin transfer of non-native aquatic species in the United States
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