Xiaohui Zhong, Lei Chen, Xu Fan, Wenxu Qian, Jun Liu, Hao Li
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Our study conducts comparative analyses between ML-based 1-hourly\nforecasts and those from the high-resolution forecast (HRES) of the European\nCentre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for various practical\nscenarios. The results demonstrate that FuXi-2.0 consistently outperforms ECMWF\nHRES in forecasting key meteorological variables relevant to these sectors. In\nparticular, FuXi-2.0 shows superior performance in wind power forecasting\ncompared to ECMWF HRES, further validating its efficacy as a reliable tool for\nscenarios demanding precise weather forecasts. Additionally, FuXi-2.0 also\nintegrates both atmospheric and oceanic components, representing a significant\nstep forward in the development of coupled atmospheric-ocean models. Further\ncomparative analyses reveal that FuXi-2.0 provides more accurate forecasts of\ntropical cyclone intensity than its predecessor, FuXi-1.0, suggesting that\nthere are benefits of an atmosphere-ocean coupled model over atmosphere-only\nmodels.","PeriodicalId":501166,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - PHYS - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics","volume":"281 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"FuXi-2.0: Advancing machine learning weather forecasting model for practical applications\",\"authors\":\"Xiaohui Zhong, Lei Chen, Xu Fan, Wenxu Qian, Jun Liu, Hao Li\",\"doi\":\"arxiv-2409.07188\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Machine learning (ML) models have become increasingly valuable in weather\\nforecasting, providing forecasts that not only lower computational costs but\\noften match or exceed the accuracy of traditional numerical weather prediction\\n(NWP) models. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
机器学习(ML)模型在天气预报中的价值与日俱增,它提供的预报不仅能降低计算成本,而且精度往往能达到或超过传统的数值天气预报(NWP)模型。尽管 ML 模型潜力巨大,但它通常受到时间分辨率较低(通常为 6 小时)和气象变量集有限等限制,从而限制了其实际应用性。为了克服这些挑战,我们引入了 FuXi-2.0,这是一种先进的 ML 模式,可提供每 1 小时的全球天气预报,并包含一套全面的基本气象变量,从而将其用途扩展到风能和太阳能、航空和海运等各个领域。我们的研究对基于 ML 的 1 小时预报和欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)的高分辨率预报(HRES)进行了比较分析。结果表明,FuXi-2.0 在预报与这些部门相关的关键气象变量方面始终优于 ECMWFHRES。特别是,与 ECMWF HRES 相比,FuXi-2.0 在风力发电预报方面表现出更优越的性能,进一步验证了其作为需要精确天气预报的情况下的可靠工具的有效性。此外,FuXi-2.0 还集成了大气和海洋成分,在开发大气-海洋耦合模式方面迈出了重要一步。进一步的比较分析表明,FuXi-2.0 对热带气旋强度的预报比其前身 FuXi-1.0 更准确,这表明大气-海洋耦合模式比纯大气模式更有优势。
FuXi-2.0: Advancing machine learning weather forecasting model for practical applications
Machine learning (ML) models have become increasingly valuable in weather
forecasting, providing forecasts that not only lower computational costs but
often match or exceed the accuracy of traditional numerical weather prediction
(NWP) models. Despite their potential, ML models typically suffer from
limitations such as coarse temporal resolution, typically 6 hours, and a
limited set of meteorological variables, limiting their practical
applicability. To overcome these challenges, we introduce FuXi-2.0, an advanced
ML model that delivers 1-hourly global weather forecasts and includes a
comprehensive set of essential meteorological variables, thereby expanding its
utility across various sectors like wind and solar energy, aviation, and marine
shipping. Our study conducts comparative analyses between ML-based 1-hourly
forecasts and those from the high-resolution forecast (HRES) of the European
Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for various practical
scenarios. The results demonstrate that FuXi-2.0 consistently outperforms ECMWF
HRES in forecasting key meteorological variables relevant to these sectors. In
particular, FuXi-2.0 shows superior performance in wind power forecasting
compared to ECMWF HRES, further validating its efficacy as a reliable tool for
scenarios demanding precise weather forecasts. Additionally, FuXi-2.0 also
integrates both atmospheric and oceanic components, representing a significant
step forward in the development of coupled atmospheric-ocean models. Further
comparative analyses reveal that FuXi-2.0 provides more accurate forecasts of
tropical cyclone intensity than its predecessor, FuXi-1.0, suggesting that
there are benefits of an atmosphere-ocean coupled model over atmosphere-only
models.