Baseline load characteristics of transitioning to air-to-air heat pump electric heating in rural areas of northern China

Clean heating, represented by the ‘coal-to-electricity’ program, is considered a key strategic approach to addressing severe air pollution in northern China. However, the transition to air-to-air heat pump (AAHP) electrical heating in rural households can significantly impact the electricity load. Therefore, it is crucial to quantify and analyze baseline load characteristics of transitioning to electric heating in rural areas. This study evaluated variations in rural baseline load characteristics under four typical heating patterns and four scenarios with different electric heating transformation rates and heating demands. The results indicate no significant difference in the original baseline load between weekdays and weekends in rural areas. Under the four typical heating patterns, the peak-valley ratio increases while the load rate decreases. In particular, the intermittent heating patterns exhibit peak-valley ratios ranging from 0.89 to 0.95 and load rates ranging from 0.21 to 0.39. When the AAHP heating transformation rates exceed 50%, an increase in substation power supply capacity is needed. Furthermore, under different heating scenarios, the average peak-valley ratios of rural power substations range from 0.41 to 0.60, suggesting significant potential for demand response. These findings have significant implications for energy security and energy planning in rural areas.