利用基于模糊规则的贝叶斯网络和多属性决策的油气泊位系泊风险综合风险评估框架

IF 3.9 3区 环境科学与生态学 Q1 ENGINEERING, CIVIL Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment Pub Date : 2024-09-05 DOI:10.1007/s00477-024-02809-w
Hakan Demirel, Veysi Başhan, Melih Yucesan, Muhammet Gul
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引用次数: 0

摘要

系泊作业,尤其是碳氢化合物泊位的系泊作业,是海洋和近海工业的关键组成部分。它们通常涉及到确保装载贵重货物的船只停泊,以及确保人员、资产和环境的安全。为此,本研究提出了碳氢化合物泊位系泊操作的综合风险评估框架。该框架利用基于规则的贝叶斯网络帮助评估风险。在系泊风险评估中,考虑了严重性、发生、检测和维护四个风险参数,以构建每个系泊风险的贝叶斯网络结构。借助模糊最佳最差法对这些参数进行加权。之后,通过结合 BN 构建一个基于规则的模糊系统,以确定风险优先级得分。该框架还制定了缓解策略,以保持有效的风险管理,实现安全可靠的海上运输。为测试拟议的综合风险管理框架的有效性,进行了敏感性分析和比较研究。研究显示,最关键的风险与快速脱缆钩自动化组中的技术故障(Q1)有关。这一风险源于自动化系统的技术故障,包括传感器和控制机制,可能导致系泊缆绳的意外释放。在系泊风险群组中,第二高优先级风险与人为失误(M1)有关,归因于系泊操作过程中的人为失误,如培训不足、沟通不畅和程序错误,造成事故风险以及对船舶和基础设施的损害。相反,最不重要的风险 "冗余"(问题 5)则侧重于冗余。这一风险与自动化有关,强调了实施冗余机制的重要性,以确保在系统故障时仍能安全地继续系泊作业。总之,拟议的综合风险评估框架为评估碳氢化合物泊位的系泊风险并确定其优先次序提供了一种系统方法。研究结果强调,解决快卸钩自动化过程中的技术故障和系泊操作过程中的人为失误至关重要。通过确定最重要的风险并制定缓解战略,该框架有助于加强海上运输的安全和安保,特别是在碳氢化合物泊位方面。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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A comprehensive risk assessment framework for mooring risks at hydrocarbon berths using fuzzy rule-based Bayesian network and multi-attribute decision-making

Mooring operations -especially at hydrocarbon berths- are critical components of the marine and offshore industry. They usually involve securing the berths of ships carrying valuable cargo and ensuring the safety of personnel, assets, and the environment. For this purpose, a comprehensive risk assessment framework for mooring operations at hydrocarbon berths is proposed in this study. This framework helps evaluate risks using a rule-based Bayesian network. In the assessment of mooring risks, four risk parameters of severity, occurrence, detection, and maintenance are considered to construct the BN structure of each mooring risk. These parameters are weighted with the aid of the fuzzy Best Worst Method. Hereafter, a fuzzy rule-based system is constructed by incorporating BN to determine a risk priority score. The framework also develops mitigation strategies to maintain effective risk management for safe and secure maritime transportation. Sensitivity analyzes and comparison studies were conducted to test the validity of the proposed comprehensive risk management framework. The study reveals that the most critical risk is associated with Technical Failures (Q1) in the cluster pertaining to the automation of Quick Release Hooks. This risk stems from technical malfunctions in automation systems, encompassing sensors and control mechanisms, potentially resulting in the unintended release of mooring lines. The second highest priority risk is linked to Human Error (M1) in the mooring risks cluster, attributed to human errors such as inadequate training, miscommunication, and procedural mistakes during mooring operations, posing risks of accidents and damage to ships and infrastructure. Conversely, the least significant risk, Redundancy (Q5), focuses on redundancy. This risk is associated with automation and underscores the importance of implementing redundancy mechanisms to ensure the safe continuation of mooring operations in the face of system failures. In conclusion, the proposed comprehensive risk assessment framework offers a systematic approach to evaluate and prioritize mooring risks at hydrocarbon berths. The study’s findings emphasize the critical importance of addressing technical malfunctions in the automation of Quick Release Hooks and human errors during mooring operations. By identifying the most significant risks and developing mitigation strategies, this framework contributes to enhancing the safety and security of maritime transportation, particularly in the context of hydrocarbon berths.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.10
自引率
9.50%
发文量
189
审稿时长
3.8 months
期刊介绍: Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA) will publish research papers, reviews and technical notes on stochastic and probabilistic approaches to environmental sciences and engineering, including interactions of earth and atmospheric environments with people and ecosystems. The basic idea is to bring together research papers on stochastic modelling in various fields of environmental sciences and to provide an interdisciplinary forum for the exchange of ideas, for communicating on issues that cut across disciplinary barriers, and for the dissemination of stochastic techniques used in different fields to the community of interested researchers. Original contributions will be considered dealing with modelling (theoretical and computational), measurements and instrumentation in one or more of the following topical areas: - Spatiotemporal analysis and mapping of natural processes. - Enviroinformatics. - Environmental risk assessment, reliability analysis and decision making. - Surface and subsurface hydrology and hydraulics. - Multiphase porous media domains and contaminant transport modelling. - Hazardous waste site characterization. - Stochastic turbulence and random hydrodynamic fields. - Chaotic and fractal systems. - Random waves and seafloor morphology. - Stochastic atmospheric and climate processes. - Air pollution and quality assessment research. - Modern geostatistics. - Mechanisms of pollutant formation, emission, exposure and absorption. - Physical, chemical and biological analysis of human exposure from single and multiple media and routes; control and protection. - Bioinformatics. - Probabilistic methods in ecology and population biology. - Epidemiological investigations. - Models using stochastic differential equations stochastic or partial differential equations. - Hazardous waste site characterization.
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